#美联储政策展望# The market sentiment has been truly volatile lately. Just a couple of days ago, people were envisioning a potential rate cut by the Fed, and some were even calling for Bitcoin to reach $130,000. But now it seems that the options market has sensed a feeling of unease. The bullish sentiment for long-term options has vanished, which is not a good sign. The last time this happened was in early 2022, and we all know what happened afterward.

To be honest, I have become numb to these big ups and downs. How many times have I been fooled by market "experts" with their optimistic expectations, only to end up losing everything? Now I only believe in one thing: the market is always right, not those so-called analysts.

However, speaking of which, the Fed's policy is indeed a big variable. If they really start to cut interest rates, then funds will definitely flow back to risk assets. But the question is, is inflation really under control? The employment data is also not very optimistic. I feel like the Fed is now walking a tightrope, and one misstep could trigger a new round of turmoil.

For us ordinary investors, the most important thing is risk control. Do not blindly chase highs, nor should you bet easily. Closely monitor various indicators and do proper asset allocation; that is the way to survive in the long term. After all, in this market, living long is harder than getting rich overnight.