Global Economic Landscape and Crypto Assets Market Outlook

1. Shift in Trading Logic: Tariff Games Become Central

The core trading logic of the current market has shifted from monetary policy to the third round of tariff games. Tariff negotiations among major economies have basically been set, with the final focus of the game falling on the world's largest producer. Recently, the game has shown signs of escalation:

• China strengthens regulation in the technology sector
• The United States adjusts the tax policy for small parcels, with some tariff policies extended by 90 days.

Against this backdrop, market sentiment is affected, and short-term volatility is intensified.

2. Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Short-term Adjustments and Long-term Potential Coexist

From a technical indicator perspective, Bitcoin shows the characteristic of "short correction and long bull".

• Daily level: In a bullish adjustment phase, there is potential for downward movement. Referring to the previous adjustment range, it may dip to $110,700, or even $108,000.
• Weekly and monthly levels: Overall maintained an upward channel, medium to long-term trend remains unchanged.
• Potential Risks: If global liquidity continues to decrease, it may trigger a weekly level bullish adjustment, targeting a drop to the range of $83,000-$88,000.

3. Key Economic Data and Policy Games

1. The US non-farm data is receiving a lot of attention.

The non-farm payroll data for July released on the evening of August 1st in the United States is crucial:

• Expected to create 110,000 new jobs, unemployment rate 4.2%
• If the data continues to improve, it will further weaken the expectations for interest rate cuts in September.

In addition, the US July ISM Manufacturing PMI and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index should also be a focus.

2. The Struggle Between Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy

• Central Bank: Recently continued to reduce holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds and tighten liquidity.
• Ministry of Finance: Achieve quantitative easing through short-term debt issuance and repurchase of long-term debt.

The current interest rate swap market shows that the probability of no interest rate cut in September is 58.8%, while the probability of a rate cut is 41%.

IV. Global Economic Landscape: The Game of Tariff Impact and Liquidity Easing

1. Tariffs Trigger Mild Global Recession

• China's manufacturing PMI fell into contraction territory in July.
• Japan and South Korea's manufacturing sectors continue to shrink
• Canada's GDP is expected to shrink
• The US-European trade agreement triggered a depreciation of the euro, leading to a rebound in the dollar index.

2. Global easing policies support long-term liquidity

Despite the increased short-term volatility, major economies are still responding to downward pressure through accommodative policies:

• Germany introduces unlimited fiscal and military budget
• Multiple countries synchronously release liquidity
• The U.S. fiscal policy continues to strengthen, and global liquidity is expected to rebound in the medium to long term.

5. Investment Strategy Recommendations

The current market exhibits characteristics of "short-term adjustment pressure + long-term upward potential:"

• Short term: Factors such as tariff disputes, dollar rebound, and non-farm payroll data may trigger adjustments in Bitcoin.
• Long-term: With global liquidity easing and fiscal policy support, Bitcoin is expected to reach new highs.

Investors can adjust their strategies by combining technical support levels with key data to seize medium to long-term opportunities amidst volatility.