BTC and ETH Market Review This Week

Overall Trend

This week, the cryptocurrency market is showing an overall upward trend with fluctuations:

• Bitcoin maintains a volatile upward trend. Although a large transfer of BTC occurred again at a certain exchange address, it did not trigger market panic. The Federal Reserve FOMC meeting minutes indicate an increased possibility of a rate cut in September, driving up the price of BTC, but the market's future expectations remain insufficiently optimistic, leading to a price pullback.

• Ethereum follows Bitcoin in a volatile upward trend, but its gains are weaker than Bitcoin's. The trading volume of spot ETFs has continued to flow out this week, coupled with a lack of highlights in the ecosystem, resulting in a relatively weak performance. Meanwhile, some funds have shifted towards speculation on Meme coins in the Tron ecosystem, further weakening ETH's performance.

Important Events

1. The Federal Reserve released the minutes of the July FOMC meeting, clearly stating that if the data meets expectations, a rate cut in September may be appropriate. The market generally expects a 25 basis point rate cut in September.

2. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics significantly revised down the number of jobs over the past year by 818,000, marking the largest adjustment in 15 years. This indicates that the job market is not as strong as previously expected, but the market believes this move will prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September.

3. The address of a certain exchange has once again transferred 13264.69 BTC, which is believed to be a continuation of compensation to previous users. However, this transfer did not cause panic in the market.

Altcoin Market Performance

This week, the market sentiment index rose to 90%, moving from extreme fear into the extreme greed zone. Altcoins continued their rebound momentum from last week, generally outperforming BTC and ETH. However, the trading volume is not large, indicating limited capital inflow, making it difficult for the broad rise to sustain.

The top five tokens in terms of gains are dispersed across multiple tracks such as DEX, POW, cross-chain, and stablecoins, lacking obvious characteristics of sector concentration. The reasons for the increases vary, such as the introduction of new perpetual contracts on a trading platform and the addition of staking features.

The popularity of Meme coins has decreased, with price increases generally weaker than other sectors. Aside from the Tron ecosystem, which is supported by its founder, other public chains' Meme coins have performed mediocre.

Social Media Hotspots

This week, the L1 track has the highest attention on social media, with most projects seeing significant gains. There may be two possible reasons: first, a continuation of last week's catch-up; second, the beginning of sector rotation. However, the latter is less likely.

Topic Tracking

According to the weekly return rate statistics, the AI sector performed the best, while the SocialFi sector performed the worst.

• AI track: After experiencing a downturn, it has started to rebound, but trading volume remains low, so it is advisable to remain cautious.

• SocialFi track: The main TON has slightly pulled back, while other projects have performed well. The overall performance is poor mainly due to the positive news for TON being fully priced in.

Outlook for Next Week

1. Bitcoin: Expected to maintain a wide range of fluctuations. Although there are positive news, the market sentiment is cautious, and purchasing power is insufficient.

2. Ethereum: Lack of ecological innovation and hotspots, continuous capital outflow. It is expected to remain correlated with Bitcoin, showing wide fluctuations.

3. Altcoin: Although there was a general increase this week, the trading volume was insufficient. It is expected that the supplementary increase may end next week, fluctuating in sync with the overall market.