Messari analyst: Can't help but speculate, will XRP market cap surpass ETH?

Opportunity and market reaction, XRP is affected by Trump in the United States, coupled with the price suppression of ETH, is it really possible to become an Ethereum price killer? This article is from Sam Ruskin, a research tweet by Messari analysts, "The Case for XRP Flipping ETH," compiled and rewritten by Foresight News. (Synopsis: Whale adds $3.8 billion, XRP is going to $10?) (Background added: JPMorgan: Solana and XRP ETFs are expected to attract $13.6 billion in their first year if passed) Let me start with a few points: I'm definitely not the first to make this point, but a few days ago, I came to believe that XRP surpassing ETH is entirely possible. I don't think XRP or ETH is reasonably valued at current prices, but I'm not here to discuss the valuation I think they deserve. In the months following the US election, XRP experienced a noticeable upswing. Since then, the XRP price rise has exceeded 460%, and Market Cap has surpassed BNB, USDT and SOL. Based on Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV), XRP is valued at twice as much as Solana and about two-thirds as Ethereum. Source: Messari It's safe to say that no other cryptocurrency has benefited as much from this election as XRP. Source: Messari But I'm not here to talk about BNB, SOL, or USDT, which have been surpassed by XRP. Ethereum (except for BTC, which I hope will never have to write about a similar situation with BTC) is the last one that has not yet been surpassed. Quantitative analysis of ETH and XRP Source: Coinglass By all metrics, Ethereum seems to be overvalued. Open interest is at an all-time high, while ETH is still down 30% from its all-time high of $4800. Source: Coinglass XRP, on the other hand, has a much healthier open interest volume and a higher correlation with price action. Due to the complexity of options, the volume of open interest in the cryptocurrency market is generally more correlated with native investors than the average retail investor. This indicates that Ethereum's demand for on-chain is relatively saturated. Source: Coinglass Ethereum ETF's Market Cap accounts for 3% of Ethereum's total Market Cap, while BTC ETF's Market Cap accounts for nearly 10% of BTC's total Market Cap. Retail investor's enthusiasm for Ethereum is not as high as it is for BTC, so on-chain's morale suffers. Source: Artemis Ethereum L1 has faced many challenges over the past few years, with competitors like Solana, Sui, and even its own L2 solutions such as Base. The Ethereum community remains divided on whether L2-to-L1 economic rise is inherently parasitic or essential. Either way, these outflows are a worrying trend for ETH. Looking at the price movements of XRP and Ethereum over the past year, it is difficult to find a reason to buy Ethereum. As @mikeykremer said in his thoughtful article: "Buy when strong is confirmed, sell when weak." Market indicators indicate that interest in XRP is currently higher than interest in ETH. Over the past 6-12 months, sentiment towards ETH on Cryptocurrency Twitter has dropped significantly. After the failure of Blast Airdrop, it became clear that the Ethereum ecosystem was oversaturated with L2 and that the Ethereum community's funding and development efforts were misallocated. Source: Dune (21co) When comparing the number of active addresses and transactions, Base leads by a wide margin, becoming Ethereum's most popular L2. When comparing the top two L2s in terms of total lock-up position value (TVL), Base had a TVL of nearly $4 billion after a year and a half, while Arbitrum had a TVL of $3 billion after three and a half years. By almost all metrics, Base is the leading L2 on Ethereum. Qualitative Analysis of ETH and XRP The L2 Extension Suite Roadmap (Modular Block Chain Design) aims to achieve as much decentralization as possible by using multiple rollups and L2s to increase throughput. Over-reliance on a single chain goes against Ethereum's core goals, but Base is also Ethereum's last hope for ensuring on-chain activity. It's a negative feedback loop and I don't see a way out at the moment (unless Base becomes the only representative of Ethereum). XRP, on the other hand, has few similar internal contradictions when it comes to protocol roadmaps. Instead, its community is united by the belief that XRP will play a central role in the future of finance. Until this belief is falsified or validated (which could push XRP prices upwards), its core supporters are unlikely to waver. In addition, I think there are likely to be four potential factors driving XRP prices up in the coming weeks: Trump Inauguration: Given the recent Bull Market momentum from the Mega Watch, Trump's inauguration looks more like a buy-in event. Since Trump's participation in the cryptocurrency gala, figures like Garlinghouse may also attend, which may bring more follow-up to XRP. ETF Application: XRP has not yet applied for an ETF. Given the price spike when ETH, SOL, and BTC apply for ETF announcements, a similar effect could occur if XRP applies for an ETF. Capital Gains Tax Policy: Proposed cryptocurrency policies, such as the elimination of the Capital Gains Tax for U.S. companies, could create tax-driven demand for XRP. As a U.S. project, XRP may attract capital reallocation due to potential tax advantages. "Older investors" currency rotation: Coins like XRP, HBAR, XLM and ADA rose sharply in price shortly after Trump's election. Similar trends may emerge around the time of the inauguration, as this may attract buyers with similar interests and preferences. Long story short, I'm not trying to encourage those XRP bears: people wake up and realize that XRP is overvalued, and it does. Fortunately, the entire cryptocurrency market is overvalued, so XRP doesn't stand out in this regard. Garlinghouse's activity in the White House is not as high as some expected. He did vote for Kamala, but XRP still looks like it's considered a "Trump token," which speaks volumes about how easy it is for investors to forget. An alternative banking solution replaces XRP, whether it's a cryptocurrency-based stablecoin or something completely new. Time Window I look at short-term trading opportunities, probably a month or so after the inauguration. We're seeing a lot of this price action rush right now, but I expect XRP to overtake ETH likely to happen after Trump takes office. Assuming ETH rises more slowly than XRP, I expect XRP to have another 35 – 50% rise from now on. Related reports Whale adds $3.8 billion, XRP is going to $10? J.P. Morgan: Solana and XRP ETF will have the first year if they pass...