Will the US BTC strategic reserve come this year? Deduction of 5 possible paths

Although Trump did not sign any cryptocurrency-related executive orders after officially "ascending the throne" today, the market is still eager for the United States to establish a BTC strategic reserve, and I am personally optimistic about it (but the path may not be the same as everyone imagined). (Synopsis: The biggest tipping point in the market this year: When will the US government launch the BTC reserve program? (Background add: Arthur Hayes: I don't think Trump will build BTC reserves, Polymarket 100-day pass probability dropped to 36%) This possibility was raised by Trump last summer and triggered endless imagination in the cryptocurrency market, especially in the 100 days after Trump officially "ascended the throne" this week, the market once predicted that the probability of this thing landing was greater than 50% (Polymarket betting data, which fell back to 36% at the time of publication). Many skeptics have questioned the stability and security of BTC, but proponents argue that BTC reserves can strengthen the dollar and fight inflation. Commentators are divided on whether Trump can use executive authority to build reserves, direct Treasury spending money, or whether congressional bills are needed. Next, I will take the reader to look forward to the potential landing path of related reserves. 1. What is a strategic reserve? A strategic reserve is a reserve of key resources, which is a reserve of materials that the country can quickly mobilize and use in response to special circumstances such as emergencies, emergencies or wars. The most famous example is the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the world's largest national oil reserve system (700 million barrels), established by an act of Congress in 1975 in response to the impact of the 1973-1974 Arab oil embargo on the U.S. economy. The U.S. has used the reserve during wars, or during hurricanes on Gulf Coast oil infrastructure or the war in Ukraine. The United States also has strategic reserves of gold, minerals, grain, military supplies, and so on. 2. How will the US BTC Strategic Reserve work? The first question is, can Trump establish a BTC strategic reserve through executive power? —— Initial source The initial source of the reserve is most likely the BTC confiscated by the US government from criminals, which is currently about 200,000 BTC, worth about $21 billion at current prices. Trump suggested in a July speech that these BTCs could serve as a starting point for reserves, but it's unclear how they will be transferred from the Justice Department. Trump has not made it clear whether the administration will increase its reserves by buying more BTC on the open market. Source of Funding 1: ESF Some believe that Trump can use the U.S. Treasury Department's Forex Stabilization Fund ESF to build up reserves by executive order. The fund can be used to buy or sell foreign coins and may also be used to hold BTC. This option is more realistic, can be implemented quickly, the use of ESF in a certain range does not need to be approved by Congress one by one, with greater flexibility, the fund currently has more than $200 billion, mainly used to stabilize the exchange rate of dollars and support international coin flows. —— Source of funding 2: Issuing new debt In addition, there is also a view that the government may be issuance new debt to buy, which I personally think is unlikely. Because the US government debt issuance needs to be approved by Congress, the United States now has a debt ceiling several times a year, and both parties are unlikely to agree to increase debt for buying BTC, and the United States has too many high-priority spending tasks than BTC, such as pension, health care, war... However, in history, the United States has bought gold through Treasury financing to increase reserves, so there is a glimmer of hope here. - Source of funds 3: Sell gold Finally, some proponents of BTC reserves imagine that the United States can sell part of its gold reserves and use the proceeds to buy BTC. The biggest problem here is that the sale of gold in the United States may cause violent fluctuations in the global gold market, affecting the reserve security of all countries, which in turn may trigger instability in international financial markets, because gold is the collateral of many financial institutions. Moreover, the price of gold is relatively stable and as an internationally recognized scarce asset, Liquidity is very good, and the possibility of selling gold for BTC is not great, it is better to have both assets as reserves more and more than sell one for one. —— Source of funds 4: Coin financing In the new era when the US government is struggling to borrow and the president takes the lead in issuing coins for the whole family, the brain hole can indeed be bigger, and it is not impossible for the federal government agency issuance to develop a new digital coin. Because it is important to think that if the US government buys BTC on a large scale, it may have an intervening effect on the BTC market, pushing up prices and forming bubbles. After the market bubble bursts, it may lead to a big dump in the price of BTC, and the government and many investors who are halfway on the road will face huge losses. Therefore, the government opens a project to let everyone put BTC or WBTC into the on-chain contract Address, corresponding to issuance a governance token, not corresponding to the right to redeem, just like Trump's $WLFI, which is likely to attract many people to participate, and the US government can achieve BTC without affecting the market price and without additional debt, which is the best solution. Source of Funding 5: Financing to Create a MSTR-like Company The U.S. government could set up a government-controlled company that would purchase BTC through debt financing or other Capital Market instruments, thereby diversifying the strategic reserves of the United States. Similar to $MSTR, bonds can be issued, additional equity can be issued, convertible bonds can be used for financing, and all three can be combined. There are many cases in which the US government controls a company through the Treasury Department or the Federal Reserve, the most typical of which are Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Since 2008, these two institutions have effectively become "government holding companies" after being bailed out by the government, and the government has provided clear guarantees for their debts. As a corporate entity, the company finances capital marketissuance bonds or other securities, buys and guarantees residential mortgages, and the purpose is not simply to make profits for shareholders, but more to macro-control - to improve the Liquidity of the U.S. housing market, drop loan Intrerest Rate. The U.S. government 08 made huge loans to these two companies during the financial crisis (the U.S. Treasury Department and the U.S. Federal Reserve) and became major shareholders in their stock through acquisition after the crisis. So you say that it is possible for the government to take a stake in $MSTR or to start a similar enterprise yourself? It is not entirely impossible, if one day BTC penetrates the TradFi system so deeply that it is as important as the residential mortgage assets of the year and needs to maintain its stability. Potential purchase size 1 million Currently, the most concrete BTC reserve proposal circulating in Washington comes from Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis, who supports Cryptocurrency. She herself holds 5 BTC, and in July she introduced a bill that has not yet received follow-up that would create a reserve run by the Ministry of Finance. The bill envisages that the Ministry of Finance will establish a program to purchase 200,000 BTC per year for five years until the reserve reaches 1 million coins. This would account for about 5% of the total global supply of BTC (about 21 million coins). The Treasury Department will use profits from Federal Reserve Bank deposits and gold holdings to fund these purchases. BTC reserves will last at least 20 years. Loomis's proposal has yet to be followed by Congress, and the possibility of its implementation remains uncertain. Another possibility is that reserves will be built in stages, such as starting with one state (probably...