Wall Street prophets warn: U.S. stocks may have entered a bear market! "Tariff 2.0" threatens to repeat the flash crash of 1987

U.S. stocks have recently been violently shaken, market risk aversion has heated up, well-known investment expert Ed Yardeni has rarely turned conservative, warning that U.S. stocks may have quietly entered a bear market, policy and market confidence will determine the subsequent trend, investors need to pay attention to risks and bargain hunting opportunities. (Synopsis: Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin $75,000 is a key support, WhaleWire: institutional narrative collapse BTC bear market has arrived) (Background supplement: Buffett's shareholder letter hidden secret: full of cash and other US stocks crashed? Bear market may repeat the tragic situation of the Internet bubble) Edard Yardeni, a well-known analyst on Wall Street who has long been bullish on U.S. stocks, has rarely turned cautious, believing that U.S. stocks may have quietly entered a bear market. He pointed out that Trump's "tariffs 2.0" could trigger a flash crash in 1962 or 1987 and raise the probability of a U.S. recession to 35%. Although short-term market turmoil has intensified, he still believes that the long-term bull market is not dead, and the key lies in policy changes and corporate earnings support. The decline in U.S. stocks is hard to stop, and the bear market has begun? After the violent turmoil in U.S. stocks last week, the market ushered in "Black Monday" again this week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 890 points, the Nasdaq and Philadelphia semiconductor indexes both falling more than 4%, and the S&P 500 index also falling 2.5%. Among them, technology stocks were the heaviest selling pressure, recording the biggest one-day decline since 2022. This market pullback has made Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, known as the "prophet of Wall Street", rarely turn conservative. He said: "We cannot rule out that the bear market may have quietly started on February 20, the day after the S&P 500 reached a new all-time high. Yardeni further warned that Trump's "Tariff 2.0" plan could repeat the flash crashes of 1962 and 1987, when the market would fall sharply for a short time, but then could rebound quickly. He believes that this sharp decline may provide investors with opportunities to take advantage of the downturn, especially some stocks that were originally overvalued and have recently recovered sharply. Fed stands by, market bulls pressure increases Not only Trump's tariff policy has affected the market, but the Fed's attitude has made investors more uneasy. Yardeni noted: The market had expected the Fed to cut interest rates as soon as June, but Chairman Jerome Powell's recent remarks showed that the central bank is still in no hurry to ease monetary policy. "In the absence of a bailout by the Fed and the Trump administration, market bulls can now only be supported by corporate profits and economic fundamentals." Yardeni bluntly said that the current market turmoil is not a purely technical rollback, but the result of a combination of policy variables and investor confidence. It is worth noting that he has raised the probability of a US recession and stock market entering a bear market from 20% to 35%, while revising the probability of a continued bull market in 2025 from 80% to 65%. Technology stocks become the hardest hit area, the market panic index soars In this wave of corrections, technology stocks bore the brunt, and the main technology leaders fell amazingly: The seven heroes of technology fell across the board, and Tesla plunged 15.4%, the worst one-day decline in five years; NVIDIA plunged 5.07%, becoming the biggest drag on the Dow Jones Industrial Average; Apple tumbled 4.85 percent, its biggest drop in two and a half years. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) plunged 4.85%, all 30 constituents closed in the dark, Supermicro Semiconductor (AMD) plunged 10.57%, and TSMC ADR resisted the decline, falling 3.64%. The VIX index, commonly known as the "fear index", soared to 29.56, up 26.5% in a single day, and the market's safe-haven demand rose significantly. However, the market is not entirely pessimistic. According to MarketWatch columnist Michael Brush, many corporate insiders have begun to buy energy, technology, banking, industrial and biotechnology stocks on the dip, and some funds have begun to enter the market. Will the 2025 bull market continue? Policy is the biggest variable Despite the short-term market turmoil, Yardeni believes that the long-term structure of U.S. stocks has not been destroyed, and there is still a chance that the bull market in 2025 will continue, but only if the trade war does not escalate further. He estimates that there is a 65% chance that the bull market will continue in 2025, and in the long term, there is still a 55% chance that US stocks will continue into the 2030s due to technology-driven productivity gains. However, if Trump's tariff war expands further, U.S. stocks may usher in a deeper correction. "This market correction allows us to see more clearly the impact of policy on the market." Yardeni believes investors should pay close attention to the Fed's policy developments and whether Trump's trade policies show signs of easing. Related reports Buffett's shareholder letter hides a mystery: full of cash and other U.S. stocks crash? Bear market fears repeat dot-com bubble tragedy Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin $75,000 is key support, WhaleWire: institutional narrative collapse BTC Bear market has arrived... Altcoins have lost $234 billion in market value in the past 2 weeks, "the worst in history" Glassnode: has fallen into a bear market (Wall Street prophet warns: U.S. stocks may have entered a bear market! "Tariff 2.0" may reproduce the 1987 flash crash" This article was first published in BlockTempo's "Dynamic Trend - The Most Influential Blockchain News Media".