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Another #BTC Statistical Analysis : The Death Cross
Bitcoin usually finds a bottom around the day of the death cross and has a rally from that point onwards. The last death cross was 1 day prior to the April low. The previous one was 3 days after the August 2024 low.
50 days ago Bitcoin price was around 116k. Today it is around 101k. This change drops the 50-day SMA by ~300 dollars per day.
Meanwhile, 200 days ago, Bitcoin just started its fast recovery from the April lows. 200 days ago it was at 85k, 199 days ago it was at 88k and 198 days ago it was at 93k. This means that the 200-day moving average will increase by 50 to 65 dollars in the next few days.
The 50-day moving average is at 112,500 and the 200-day moving average is at 110,200. A change of $350 per day means that the death cross is due to happen in 7 days.
Combined with my analysis in my pinned post, I'm expecting a weekly close above the 50W SMA (103k) and the beginning of a run to 135k.
The catalyst may be the end of the government shutdown. Who knows?
This is what statistics is telling me. Even if my thesis about a new ATH is wrong, we will surely get a rally after the death cross.