#BTC Quick Update on the Go
In my previous update, I told you that I expected BTC to bounce from 87.3k-88k and target 98k next. Now let me open it up.
On Friday we had the bounce at 88xxx but it wasn't actually in the zone. Today the price went into the golden pocket of the last move and bounced. Since the EQ was not lost during the process, Bitcoin is looking bullish.
Now it got a mild rejection from the AVWAP at 91.2k. Once it breaks above the AVWAP the next target will be the zone between 96k and 98k.
Can 87xxx be swept one more time before this happens? Possible. The weekend low may get s

#BTC Quick Update
I was away from the markets during Thanksgiving bc I thought it would be quiet and it actually was.
Now the US is back with a dump.
Things to note here:
It is a rejection from an important AVWAP, the one that started the downtrend from 106k.
The move currently looks like a re-test of the breakout from 88k. It is an important S/R zone and as long as BTC stays above the EQ of the move, it is fine.
Hence, I would expect BTC to bounce here or at 86.5-87k.
If it goes below 85k for the liquidity, it breaks the ascending structure and I would not like to see that. If it only wick

#Altcoins Update
We have compared Bitcoin and altcoin charts throughout the cycle and discussed how Bitcoin should rotate into altcoins after topping out. However, things are very different now.
In 2017, Tether had a marketcap of around $1B when Bitcoin rotated into altcoins.
In 2021, at the beginning of the year Tether only had a mcap of $20B, and in April 2021 when Bitcoin topped and the alt season peaked, the mcap was around $40B. In April, Circle also had a mcap around $14B making the total mcap of stablecoins around $55B.
Today, Tether has a mcap of $185B while Circle has $75B. Total Stab

#BTC Update
In my previous updates, I told you that I was breaking a breakout from the descending trend and a visit above 90k rather than a visit to the liquidity zone at 85k - which would break the LTF ascending structure - and here we are above 90k!
Bitcoin broke above the first AVWAP and is now just below the one from 107.3k - the last local top that started the descending channel. This level is also in confluence with the Monday Range invalidation. If BTC flips the zone between here and 93k (the VAL of the 1-year range), its target will be 96.6k which is the POC of the range.
If Bitcoin c

#BTC Update
It will be a very quick update. BTC got the bounce we were expecting and broke out of the descending channel.
Now, it will likely bounce from here or go slightly lower to 87k to sweep the liquidity and re-test the breakout.
I don't expect BTC to go further down, because if it goes lower for the liquidity at 85k, it will break the ascending market structure. If that happens, it will likely go down lower to 83k, and we don't want that right now.
The more likely scenario is a bounce here or at 87k after the re-test and a move to 90k to the confluence of the Monday Range extension wit

#BTC Update
For 2 straight weeks, the markets were relatively ok outside the NY session hours, but were dumped heavily during the NY session. That's why it is better not to get overjoyed with the weekend pump even though it is looking promising.
Since Friday, BTC is moving up without making new lows, including the Friday NY session. However, this is just a start. BTC first has to break out of the descending channel at ~88.5k.
To re-claim the volume range, it has to break above the AVWAP above 90.5k first. The next important AVWAP is at 92.8k.
On the HTF, the VAL of the 1-year range since the

#BTC Update
For 2 straight weeks, the markets were relatively ok outside the NY session hours, but were dumped heavily during the NY session. That's why it is better not to get overjoyed with the weekend pump even though it is looking promising.
Since Friday, BTC is moving up without making new lows, including the Friday NY session. However, this is just a start. BTC first has to break out of the descending channel at ~88.5k.
To re-claim the volume range, it has to break above the AVWAP above 90.5k first. The next important AVWAP is at 92.8k.
On the HTF, the VAL of the 1-year range since the

This is getting ugly. Unless Japan intervenes, our markets are doomed.

#BTC Quick Update
Despite another red day in the US, Bitcoin started to deviate positively away from Nasdaq.
It is still very early to say anything because BTC is still below the AVWAP at 94.4k and the previous local highs between 96k and 97k.
First, it has to reclaim the AVWAP then break out of the channel by going above 97k.
If it ends up making another lower high, it can go further down.
If the US indices are going to bounce soon, Bitcoin may be front-running them but only in hindsight we will be able to know.
89k is an important level that can potentially be the local low for the reasons

Here is the chart only a few people are looking at.
Whenever BoJ hikes rates, carry trade unfolds and causes a surge in USDJPY and DXY and a crash on risk-on assets. The last 2 times USDJPY got too high, BoJ intervened and lowered the rate. In these periods, Bitcoin had a relief. Last year was actually a very bullish run for Bitcoin and altcoins.
The sudden increases in Japanese 30-year bond yields are causing spikes in the VIX index and during these volatile times, Bitcoin crashes.
The BoJ meeting is on the 18th of December however the effects are already getting priced in.
If the BoJ inter

#BTC Update
Bitcoin started the day with an SFP above the AVWAP at 106.9k, however it was able to hold the Monday EQ at 105.4k as support - which is also the VAL of the Monday range. With 15 minutes to go until the 30min candle close, BTC is above the Monday VAH and the Monday High, and is just below the AVWAP at 106.9k.
If BTC flips 106.9k into support, the next targets are 109.3k and 111.4k.
On the HTF, there is a confluence of the AVWAP from the April low and the POC of the 100k+ range at 109.3k.
There is also a confluence of the second area with most volume with the AVWAP from the ATH at

#BTC Update
After a terrifying week, Bitcoin closed clearly above the 50W SMA while the Senate voted in favor of ending the shutdown.
Let's analyze Bitcoin as simple as we can, starting with AVWAPs.
Yesterday, Bitcoin broke above the AVWAP at 103.4k which is anchored to the local high at 111k. As of now, it is just below the AVWAP anchored to the local high at 116k, at 106.9k. Once it breaks above, the next target will be the AVWAP anchored to the ATH at 111.4k.
We can safely say that 103.4k is an important level for support. There is also a potential new AVWAP as support, which is currentl

Bitcoin Dominance is at an interesting point right now. After going as low as 57.17% in September, it had 7 consecutive green weekly closes. This week, it re-tested higher (briefly as high as 61.5%) but is now below 60%.
There are two important things to note here:
1⃣ It is a bearish re-test of the HTF ascending trend that was broken back in August.
2⃣ It is a bearish re-test of the Fib level at 60.34% and the first red after 7 green weekly candles.
When we zoom in, it looks even more interesting. It is now in the verge of breaking below the ascending trend that started in September.
It may

Another #BTC Statistical Analysis : The Death Cross
Bitcoin usually finds a bottom around the day of the death cross and has a rally from that point onwards. The last death cross was 1 day prior to the April low. The previous one was 3 days after the August 2024 low.
50 days ago Bitcoin price was around 116k. Today it is around 101k. This change drops the 50-day SMA by ~300 dollars per day.
Meanwhile, 200 days ago, Bitcoin just started its fast recovery from the April lows. 200 days ago it was at 85k, 199 days ago it was at 88k and 198 days ago it was at 93k. This means that the 200-day movin

#BTC# Expansion from the 50W SMA?
The last 2 days were devastating for most people. We all need some hopium now. First of all, I should say that it is still too early to speak but I will make a statistical analysis on the BTC expansions in this cycle that started after re-testing the 50W SMA.
First of all, the bear market ended when BTC broke above the 50W SMA.
In April 2023, it didn't re-test the 50W SMA but came very close. Then, it expanded 196.17% from that point in 26 weeks.
In August 2024, it wicked below the 50W SMA, and expanded 122.75% from that point. It also had another touch in Se

#BTC# Update
BTC bounced off the extension of the last move up today. If this level stays as the bottom, Bitcoin will likely head to the extension on the other side between 111,767 and 112,265.
The Monday range extension is between 111,353 and 111,907. In case BTC recovers, we can say that the first target will be between 111.5k and 112k.
In case it makes a new low, the target will be between 103,992 and 104,546.
In order to break out of this descending structure, BTC first has to flip 108k and then 111k into support.
One more thing to note is that Bitcoin closed the day about $150 above the