#BTC Update

For 2 straight weeks, the markets were relatively ok outside the NY session hours, but were dumped heavily during the NY session. That's why it is better not to get overjoyed with the weekend pump even though it is looking promising.

Since Friday, BTC is moving up without making new lows, including the Friday NY session. However, this is just a start. BTC first has to break out of the descending channel at ~88.5k.

To re-claim the volume range, it has to break above the AVWAP above 90.5k first. The next important AVWAP is at 92.8k.

On the HTF, the VAL of the 1-year range since the break out above the previous ATH (73800), is located at 93k. It falls within the golden pocket of the 74.5k-126k range and may work as a resistance. Bitcoin has to break above 93k first for a larget HTF move.

The POC is at 96.5k and it falls within the first pocket of the drop from 126k to 80.6k.

The next important price is the EQ of the drop at 103k, which is also where the 50W SMA is located.

The golden pocket of the drop is between 108.2k and 110.1k. The AVWAP from the April low and the AVWAP from the ATH (almost) falls in this area.

The next important area, the VAH is at 116.7k, which was also the lower high in October just before this dump started.

The price where Bitcoin made the low is quite significant as well. It is just above the 0.886 of the range at 80.2k and the AVWAP from the August 2023 low at 78.5k.

Bitcoin price went more than 0.75 standard deviations below the Short Term Holder Cost Basis for the 3rd time in this cycle after August 2024 and April 2025. The MVRV score went this low for the first time after August 2024. For these reasons there is a strong possibility that the bottom is in for now. The cost basis is at 107-108k right now and it will likely be around 108-110k if the price bounces.

Most people believe that the cycle top is in for quite obvious reasons.

1) Bitcoin closed below the 50W SMA for 2 consecutive weeks.
2) Bitcoin didn't have a bounce after the death cross - which is a bear market behavior.

For statistical reasons, they are right, because every bear market started like this.

However, Bitcoin only had 2 proper cycles, and 2 smaller ones. Making a comparison with such limited data and coming up to conclusions MAY NOT be valid.

It might be safer to believe that the cycle is over - UNTIL they are proven wrong.

I tend to see things differently.

🔵Historically, BTC did not have an election year (halving year) where it printed an ATH before the halving.

🔵Historically, BTC did not have a post-election (post-halving) year with a negative yearly return, and no parabolic runs in the year.

🔵Historically, there haven't been a single cycle where ETH didn't have a proper ATH well above the previous one.

🔵Historically, no cycles ended with fear and disbelief. All ended in euphoria.

For these obvious reasons, I am ready to throw the 4-year cycle theory into the bin. Actually I never believed in a four-year cycle because the cycles were actually dependent on liquidity and ISM cycles - not "halving".

HOWEVER

Until the majority is proven wrong, here is my strategy:

We should act as 108k-112k is going to be the new "lower high". Until (if) Bitcoin breaks out, this is going to be our range top. We should definitely take profits when Bitcoin reaches there.

In the worst case scenario, Bitcoin is still going to reach 108k-112k again.

ON THE LTF

🔵83k should hold as support. If it breaks below 83k, it will break below 80k as well. Be prepared for a lower low if that happens.

🔵Until BTC breaks above 93k and re-claims it as support, it is not very safe to trade it. Be very careful with the market structure (HH-LH, LH-LL) and don't insist on your positions if things go wrong.

🔵 The LTF targets are 88.5k and 90.5k before BTC reaches to 93k. If you are scalping, those our your partial TP points.

🔵 Once BTC re-claims 93k, it will have a range between 93k-108k or 93k-110k before something bigger happens. This is not a proper cycle. You shouldn't worry about the 50W SMA anymore, because it is likely not going to be relevant. However 103k is going to be important because it is also the EQ of our range.

This 93k-108k range idea might not make sense right now, but I'm sure it will in hindsight.

If BTC breaks above 112k, we will have a new HTF update. Until then, I think this wraps it up for the HTF.