Gold forecasts 2025: from the results achieved to the prospects 2026-2030

In January 2026, InvestingHaven’s 2025 gold forecasts once again proved their accuracy. While gold consolidated its gains over the previous year, a 15-year research into gold price dynamics continues to highlight a bullish outlook extending well beyond 2025. The gold forecasts for the coming years remain focused on a moderate yet sustained growth trajectory.

Methodology and Accuracy of Gold Forecasts: 15 Years of Research

We differentiate our approach from superficial predictions spread on social media. The quality of analysis, rigorous methodology, and analytical framework form the foundation of our gold forecasts. Over the past 15 years, InvestingHaven’s research team has developed an analysis system that combines long-term chart interpretation with intermarket macroeconomic indicators.

The 2025 gold forecasts achieved their main objectives. Gold reached the predicted highs at key price levels, confirming the validity of our methodology. This track record of accuracy reflects our commitment to understanding the true dynamics driving gold prices beyond superficial narratives.

Fundamental Factors Driving Gold Prices

Gold is a monetary asset driven by monetary dynamics and inflation expectations. The relationship between the monetary base M2 and gold price remains the primary fundamental indicator: when M2 increases, gold prices tend to follow, sometimes with temporal lead.

Inflation expectations, measured through the TIP ETF, represent the true market driver for gold. Historically, gold and the TIP ETF show an exceptionally strong positive correlation. This correlation invalidates the popular thesis that gold prospers during recessions: in reality, gold is closely tied to inflation expectations and the strength of the S&P 500.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and monetary growth will continue to support a moderate bullish trend in gold. In the current 2026 context, these factors remain relevant for understanding upcoming movements.

2025: The Year That Confirmed Gold Predictions

The 2025 gold forecasts reached their stated targets. Gold hit all-time highs in all major currencies at the beginning of 2024, initiating a bullish path that consolidated throughout 2025. This completes a cup and handle bullish pattern formed between 2013 and 2023 on 50-year charts.

Our thesis of a “weak bull market” proved accurate: gold prices continued to steadily increase without the dramatic acceleration seen in previous years. This moderate growth is supported by the ongoing rise in M2 and inflation expectations anchored in bullish channels.

Outlook 2026-2030: Gold Price Targets and Market Dynamics

With 2026 underway, focus shifts to the remaining years of this cycle. The forecast for the 2026 gold peak remains around $3,800, reflecting a continuation of the moderately bullish trend. Technical indicators maintain their constructive configurations: the long-term bullish pattern continues to provide structural support.

By 2030, our projected gold peak is $5,000 under normal market conditions. This psychologically significant level could represent a cycle high. In extreme scenarios—out-of-control inflation or significant geopolitical tensions—gold could theoretically reach $10,000, though this remains a low-probability scenario.

Leading indicators remain favorable. The euro (inversely correlated with the dollar) maintains a bullish technical setup on its long-term charts, creating a supportive environment. U.S. Treasury bonds, also positively correlated with gold, continue to show a secular bullish stance, excluding upward pressure from rising interest rates.

Gold in the Macro Context: M2, Inflation, and Leading Indicators

Multicap analysis remains the cornerstone of interpreting the gold market. The steady growth of M2 and CPI supports the thesis of a persistent bullish market. Although positioning on COMEX futures (net short positions of commercials) remains high, limiting short-term upward acceleration, underlying macro indicators continue to support an upward trajectory.

Currency and credit markets provide the second layer of validation. The relative strength of the euro and the stable trend of long-term government bonds create ideal macroeconomic conditions to sustain higher gold prices in the medium term.

Institutional Consensus: Convergence on 2025-2026 Price Ranges

Major financial institutions have converged on a highly consistent price range for 2025: between $2,700 and $2,800. Bloomberg estimated a range between $1,709 and $2,727, while Goldman Sachs forecasted $2,700. UBS, BofA, J.P. Morgan, and Citi Research all projected prices within this range, with Citi Research offering an average baseline projection of $2,875.

InvestingHaven’s forecast of $3,100 for 2025 reflected a slightly more bullish outlook compared to the consensus, but our track record of hitting declared targets supports the validity of this more constructive approach. ANZ offered a target of $2,805, while Macquarie projected a peak of $2,463 in Q1— the latter representing a more conservative view.

Gold or Silver: Timing of Diversification

For investors considering allocation between precious metals in 2026 and beyond, gold remains the core holding. Silver, although fundamentally solid, tends to accelerate its bullish trend in a later phase of the gold cycle. The 50-year gold/silver ratio suggests that the silver target of $50 per ounce remains a rational goal, but timing this move is a subsequent phase of the gold bull market.

FAQs on Gold Forecasts: Long-Term Perspectives

What will be the gold price in the next 5 years? The 2030 gold forecasts range between $4,500 and $5,000, with $5,000 remaining a psychologically and technically significant target under normal market conditions.

Are the gold forecasts still valid from this perspective in 2026? Yes. The bullish thesis remains fully valid as long as gold stays above $1,770—a level that represents an extremely low probability given the macroeconomic setup. As long as fundamental indicators (inflation expectations, M2, currency dynamics) remain supportive, the bullish trend in gold continues.

Do gold forecasts become obsolete? InvestingHaven’s gold forecasts are based on multi-decade historical cycles and structural macroeconomic factors, not short-term configurations. Their relevance persists as long as the underlying fundamental factors remain stable or amplify. With M2 and CPI continuously rising and inflation expectations anchored in bullish channels, gold forecasts maintain their forward-looking validity.

The path of gold toward higher levels continues steadily. Although 2025 confirmed the accuracy of forecasts made years earlier, the true bullish potential extends through 2026, 2027, and beyond, toward the 2030 horizon.