Fed Leadership Shockwave: If Hassett Takes the Helm, Will Crypto Face a "Liquidity Mirage" or a "Policy Black Hole"?
The crypto world in 2025 is undergoing a silent power reshuffle—not from on-chain governance, but from a personnel battle in Washington. As rumors swirl that Trump will nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair, even CICC has issued a rare warning: this could rewrite the century-old script for the US dollar and Treasuries. For crypto, the impact is far greater than a typical rate cut, as it touches the fundamental logic behind global liquidity distribution. The illusion of a

Surfing the Crypto Waves: 12.9 Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis and Tactical Allocation Guide
As Bitcoin makes its 17th tentative assault on the $90,000 level and Ethereum builds micro-defenses around $3,100, the entire crypto market is entering a classic volatility compression window. This isn't the end of the trend, but rather the calm before the storm. As market observers, we must look beyond the surface of candlesticks and seek high-probability tactical entry points through multi-timeframe technical resonance and micro order book structure.
I. Market Environment Anchorin

Tactical Games in the Volatility Contraction Window: 12.9 Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Deconstruction
At the start of the first full trading week in December, the digital asset market is exhibiting classic volatility compression characteristics. Bitcoin’s price is anchored at the $90,000 psychological level, while Ethereum is locked in a tug-of-war near $3,100. This seemingly chaotic consolidation is, in fact, a crucial stage in which the market seeks a new balance between macro liquidity expectations and micro-level technical structures. This article provides a practical strategy framework

Formation of Institutional Consensus: Paradigm Shift in Bitcoin Allocation Strategies Among Wall Street Asset Management Giants
The recent unusual correlation between the US stock market and the crypto asset market has revealed a profound shift in asset allocation among traditional financial behemoths. Four Wall Street giants, collectively managing over $20 trillion in assets, have each completed strategic deployments in Bitcoin investment infrastructure within just ten days. This coordinated movement is not merely a reflection of market sentiment swings; it signifies the systematic removal of

Liquidity Restructuring and Institutional Consensus: Which Hypotheses Have Been Validated by Data from Bitcoin's Epic Rally?
Recently, the market has seen a strong bullish sentiment, with the core logic pointing toward a global liquidity inflection point and the large-scale entry of institutional funds. However, beneath the grand narrative of an "epic rally," a professional perspective is needed to penetrate the data surface, validate each hypothesis, and construct an actionable investment framework. This article systematically evaluates—based on on-chain data, macro indicators, and institutio

The Multi-layered Game at Dogecoin’s $0.20 Level: A Comprehensive Analysis of Token Structure, Liquidity Constraints, and Sentiment Economics
Recently in the digital asset market, Dogecoin (DOGE) has demonstrated remarkable resilience at the critical $0.20 price level—each time the price touches this threshold, it quickly retreats to the $0.17–$0.18 range, resulting in nearly three weeks of ongoing consolidation. This phenomenon is not merely a matter of technical resistance, but rather a complex result of the interplay between market microstructure, on-chain token distribution, and macro liqu

Liquidity Pulse and Market Dislocation: When Bitcoin’s $65,000 Level Encounters a Dual-Factor Siphon
Bitcoin’s breach of the critical $65,000 support is not due to a collapse in the asset’s intrinsic value, but rather a market dislocation driven by a combination of short-term liquidity redistribution and policy expectation recalibration. As someone who has tracked the digital asset market for eight years, this article systematically dissects the fundamental mechanisms behind this adjustment: the $163 billion Treasury liquidity siphon triggered by the U.S. Treasury’s TGA account rebuild, compou

Information Resonance Week: When AI Hardware, Fed Forward Guidance, and China’s Stimulus Policies Simultaneously Strike the Crypto Market
In the next seven days, the digital currency market will experience a rare multi-dimensional information resonance. This is not merely a simple overlap of data releases, but a historic convergence of four key narratives shaping the 2026 macro landscape: technology validation, monetary policy anchoring, real economy calibration, and geopolitical policy expectations. For crypto asset investors, the information entropy of this week will directly determine the s

Cycle Restructuring Under a Liquidity Shock: Can Fed Rate Cuts and QE Rewrite Bitcoin’s Four-Year Rhythm?
When Bitcoin’s 50-week moving average—the long-term bull-bear dividing line on the weekly chart—was breached, when on-chain data showed long-term holders systematically reducing their positions, and when the market fear index hovered at historic lows, the verdict that “this bull market is over” seemed set in stone. Yet, at this very moment, the bell of a Federal Reserve policy shift quietly tolled—rate cuts have begun, quantitative tightening (QT) has officially ended, and the market broad

Bitcoin Technical Deconstruction: Structural Validation Moment at the $89,000 Threshold
Bitcoin is caught in a delicate balance around the $89,000 mark. After a rapid pullback from the strong resistance zone at $94,000 to the support band at $88,000, the market has been consolidating in a narrow range over the past 24 hours. This seemingly calm consolidation is actually the critical eve of a short-term structural direction decision.
1. From $94,000 to $88,000: Momentum Release and Support Test
The previous day's surge and pullback was not accidental. The $94,000 level, a previous high-volume t

Bitcoin Cycle Paradox: It Exists Forever Because of “Disbelief”
When Bitcoin drops from $126,000 to the $90,000 mark, predictions about the “four-year cycle failure” are once again proven wrong. This market rhythm, which has operated with precision since Bitcoin’s birth in 2009, still demonstrates astonishing effectiveness in 2025. Behind this lies a counterintuitive market truth: it is precisely the majority’s skepticism toward the pattern that enables its continuation.
1. Halving Mechanism: The Minting Clock of Digital Gold
Bitcoin’s four-year cycle originates from Satoshi Nakamoto’s scarcit

Powell’s “Gentle Knife” Next Week: The Market Is Lying on the Operating Table
The “mini-NFP” and PCE data just handed the Fed a step down for rate cuts, and Wall Street couldn’t wait to shove risk assets into a “comfort zone” of low volatility. This “panic comes and goes in a flash” behavior is just like retail traders who, right after getting liquidated, confidently open their next position.
A “Surprise” That’s Already Spoiled
The market has already written the script: Next Wednesday (December 18), the Fed will definitely cut rates by 25 bps, Powell will sound dovish at the press conference,

The "Butterfly Effect" of Yen Rate Hikes: Crypto Arbitrage Storm and Survival Rules
A single statement from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda sent global markets into high alert—“It’s highly likely that rates will be raised from 0.5% to 0.75% this month.” No sooner had he spoken than Japan's 10-year government bond yield soared to 1.9%, marking a new high since 2007. This seemingly distant monetary policy shock is transmitting to the crypto market at astonishing speed, with Bitcoin breaking key support levels and altcoins bleeding heavily.
This isn’t a simple emotional swing, but a structural

Inflation at 2.4%: A Wall Street “Emperor’s New Clothes” Feast?
When the US November CPI data landed at 2.4%, the market reacted as if a starting gun had gone off—US stocks gapped up, gold surged, Bitcoin broke through the $100,000 mark, and social media was instantly flooded with cheers for the “return of the bull market.” But behind this number, is it really a turning point of real value, or just another carefully choreographed collective illusion?
A Cup of “Cooling” Lukewarm Water
From 2.7% to 2.4%, a 0.3 percentage point drop is essentially like a patient with a high fever going from 40.1°

Crypto Market Amid Fed’s Hawkish Stance: Short-Term Pressure and Structural Opportunities Coexist
The hawkish signals released in the Federal Reserve’s December FOMC meeting minutes have significantly pressured the cryptocurrency market, with expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2025 now dropping to less than two instances throughout the year. Although historical experience shows that policy “reversals” have triggered extreme scenarios—such as single-day drops of 11% for Bitcoin and 20% for Ethereum—currently, BTC and ETH are demonstrating differentiated resilience. This article constructs a thre

Survival Rules of the Cryptocurrency Market: Systematic Practice from Cognitive Restructuring to Behavioral Discipline
Currently, participants in the cryptocurrency market generally face the dual challenges of cognitive bias and behavioral finance traps. Many new investors focus on profit myths while systematically neglecting risk management and the construction of trading psychology. This article proposes a three-dimensional training framework centered on micro-capital practice, emotional control assessment, and strict position management, aiming to build a sustainable trading philosophy syst

BofA Warning: Fed’s Dovish Rate Cuts May End the “Santa Claus Rally”
Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett has issued a warning that if the Federal Reserve sends excessively dovish signals at its upcoming policy meeting, it could jeopardize the widely anticipated year-end “Santa Claus Rally.” Although the probability of a rate cut has risen to 90%, Hartnett argues that a dovish stance may signal the economy is slowing more than expected, triggering a selloff in long-term Treasuries and becoming a key risk to further equity market gains. The S&P 500 is currently just shy of its all-time h