Prithvir

Age 2 Yıl

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Each tech breakthrough pushes human bandwidth higher, enabling a truer, lossless compression of reality
1. Gestures to speech
2. Speech to handwriting
3. Handwriting to the press
4. The press to the internet news
5. Internet news to prediction markets
The signal from prediction markets is more accurate and higher fidelity than any single news source because it encapsulates supply and demand automatically.
Love them or hate them, prediction markets are a step-function improvement in losslessly compressing reality.

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Prithvir

12-26 06:59

Prediction Market Weekly Update
Notional Volume
1. @Opinionlabsxyz $1.43b
2. @Kalshi $1.34b
3. @Polymarket $1.19b
4. @predictdotfun $37m
5. @Trylimitless $6m
6. @MyriadMarkets $1.9m
Total $4.01b
WoW +5%
Open Interest
1. @Kalshi $343m
2. @Polymarket $332m
3. @Opinionlabsxyz $72m
4. @predictdotfun $9.42m
5. @MyriadMarkets $1m
6. @Trylimitless $0.89m
Total $759m
WoW +12%
Transactions
1. @Polymarket 6.07m
2. @Kalshi 5.2m
3. @MyriadMarkets 0.627m
4. @Opinionlabsxyz 0.45m
5. @Trylimitless 0.33m
6. @predictdotfun 0.07m
Total 13.64m
WoW +7.6%
Users
1. @Polymarket 234k
2. @Opinionlabsxyz 30k
3. @pred

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Prithvir

12-23 05:48

Prediction Markets != CME Binary Options
TradFi veterans look at CME binary options volumes and conclude that prediction markets cannot scale.
This inference is wrong.
Binary options sit in an awkward middle ground:
1. They require deep financial sophistication -- greeks, vol modeling, risk-neutral pricing -- yet cap upside.
2. Traders capable of that complexity rationally choose instruments with convex payoffs: index futures, equity options, structured products.
Prediction markets invert both:
1. Collapse the skill requirement from financial engineering to information advantage. You don’t n

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Prithvir

12-22 10:08

Monetary desensitization is most acute in AI and crypto.
It’s game-theoretically optimal for:
1. VCs to deploy $2B into AI seed rounds with little expectation of near-term DPI
2. Exchanges to absorb $500M hacks as balance-sheet events
Not good or bad. Just an observation of current incentive equilibrium

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Prithvir

12-21 11:33

Ray Dalio on Prediction Markets:
> I like them.
> They’re interesting vehicles for smart people to hedge equity exposure.
Imagine when he learns about RWA perps and PMs working in tandem in the same portfolio.

RAY-1,84%

GT0,97%

RWA5,25%

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PleaseCallMeMr.Mai

Congratulations to the partners who held long orders over the weekend and made money. A big pump is coming, fam, hold on to your long orders and keep waiting.

Prithvir

12-19 10:39

Prediction Market Weekly Update
Notional Volume
1. @Opinionlabsxyz $1.53b
2. @Polymarket $1.15b
3. @Kalshi $1.11b
4. @Trylimitless $33m
5. @MyriadMarkets $4.05m
6. @predictdotfun $0.463m
Total: $3.8b
WoW: +8%
Open Interest
1. @Kalshi $313m
2. @Polymarket $296m
3. @Opinionlabsxyz $65m
4. @MyriadMarkets $0.945m
5. @Trylimitless $0.928m
6. @predictdotfun $0.01m
Total: $677m
WoW: +2.7%
Transactions
1. @Polymarket 6.07m
2. @Kalshi 5.2m
3. @MyriadMarkets 0.627m
4. @Opinionlabsxyz 0.45m
5. @Trylimitless 0.33m
6. @predictdotfun 0.07k
Total: 12.68m
WoW: +10%
Users
1. @Polymarket 219k
2. @Opinionlabs

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Prithvir

12-14 07:42

One thing that stood out at Breakpoint
The Solana ecosystem is laser-focused on app revenue as the north star, not market cap, TVL, or other metrics that are easy to game

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Prithvir

12-12 07:31

Prediction Market Weekly Update
Open Interest
1. @Kalshi $304m
2. @Polymarket $295m
3. @Opinionlabsxyz $57m
4. @Trylimitless $1m
5. @MyriadMarkets $0.979m
Total: $659m
WoW: -7%
Transactions
1. @Polymarket 5.87m
2. @Kalshi 4.9m
3. @Opinionlabsxyz 0.37m
4. @Trylimitless 0.27m
5. @MyriadMarkets 0.034m
Total: 11.46m
WoW: +11%
Notional Volume
1. @Opinionlabsxyz $1.35b
2. @Polymarket $1.29b
3. @Kalshi $1.14b
4. @Trylimitless $21m
5. @MyriadMarkets $1.2m
Total: $3.8b
WoW: +8%
Users
1. @Polymarket 223k
2. @Opinionlabsxyz 31k
3. @Trylimitless 26.71k
4. @MyriadMarkets 2.79k
Total: 284k
WoW: -3%
I pos

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Prithvir

12-05 07:50

Prediction Market Weekly Update
Transactions
1. @Kalshi 4.93m
2. @Polymarket 4.92m
3. @MyriadMarkets 0.65m
4. @Trylimitless 0.47m
5. @Opinionlabsxyz 0.38m
Total: 11.33m
WoW growth: +12%
Open Interest
1. @Kalshi $354m
2. @Polymarket $286m
3. @Opinionlabsxyz $63m
4. @Trylimitless $1.2m
5. @MyriadMarkets $0.907m
Total: $706m
WoW growth: +11%
Notional Volume
1. @Kalshi $1.21b
2. @Opinionlabsxyz $1.09b
3. @Polymarket $1.08b
4. @MyriadMarkets $56m
5. @Trylimitless $45m
Total: $3.49b
WoW growth: -4%
Users
1. @Polymarket 248k
2. @Opinionlabsxyz 32k
3. @Trylimitless 10.71k
4. @MyriadMarkets 1.9k

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Prithvir

12-03 13:37

Prediction Market Big Mover Alert
- Trump says he'll announce the new Fed chair early next year
- Market swings from 19% to 88% in a single tick
- (Faster than any news outlet could report it)
- @Domahhhh's position is up more than 2x

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Prithvir

11-30 20:16

curious how
lao tzu
lucretius and
the upanishads
all arrived at similar philosophies completely independently

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Prithvir

11-30 14:28

what are you reading this weekend?

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Prithvir

11-29 21:33

Never ask a man his salary,
a woman her age,
and an AI founder about gross margins.

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Prithvir

11-26 12:24

Robinhood and Susquehanna are buying 90% of LedgerX, giving them direct control of a US-regulated derivatives exchange.
Robinhood customers already traded 2.3b event contracts last quarter, up more than 2× the prior quarter.
A full-blown arms race is underway: DraftKings, FanDuel–CME, and Polymarket have all acquired US-regulated exchanges.

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Prithvir

11-26 12:13

so let me get this straight:
- stocks are tokenized
- m&a is no longer blocked
- exchanges offer remittances
- prediction markets have proliferated
- ZK proof based privacy protocols are legal
and, you're bearish?