TonyTheBull

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This chart shows a strong trend entering a decision phase — momentum has slowed, control still belongs to buyers, but the market is now testing whether conviction remains or whether this advance has already done its job
The doji at the top is not a sell signal — it is the first admission by the market that upward certainty has ended. What follows will determine whether this is digestion, distribution, or a final push
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Never in my time around Bitcoin has there been a more championed model than Plan B’s stock-to-flow model
It was heavily cited, religiously believed, etc.
It broke. Now it’s a joke
Models break, because environments change
BTC-1,82%
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Emotionless signal across multiple timeframes
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Ready for the bull trap?
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Silver’s monthly candle shows STRENGTH
Look at this comparison with Bitcoin circa 2017
BTC did around another 10-15x after this
Silver prob won’t do that much but it has a lot more left to go, short term and longer term
Crypto bros expect faster pullbacks between trending moves because that’s what they’re used to — but that’s not how metals behave
This rally was 40+ years in the making
Not a 4 year cycle. But a 40 year
Don’t expect the same trends to unfold as if the took only four years to develop
BTC-1,82%
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What if Bitcoin vs Silver is a glimpse into the future?
Essentially, before and after
BTC-1,82%
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OTHERS/SILVER 3M
Q4 20217 alt season candle to be wiped out completely IMO
Quarterly RSI is the lowest ever with a massive black down candlestick
I'd estimate the lower Bollinger Band to be the target area for support
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OTHERS/SILVER 12M
Hard to recommend buying Silver after such a gain, but even harder to recommend buying altcoins over Silver when the ratio looks like this
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Extracting data for a 30+ minute video on Bitcoin and its quarterly Evening Star pattern — a bearish reversal pattern that confirms 72% of the time
BTC-1,82%
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Bitcoin vs Silver is absolutely wild to see
Most oversold ever on the monthly RSI
Back at 2017 levels
Extremely powerful downward directional momentum
BTC-1,82%
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Do not get married to your altcoin position — you risk a lifetime of abuse
My 1st week in crypto, I bought the alt below at $2
Within days it went to $10, but I didn’t sell. It’s trading at $0.10 today
It’s been roughly 8 years or 3000 days and it remains down 99.21% from ATH
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Bitcoin CME monthly RSI reaches critical trend line — RSI uptrend still active
BTC-1,82%
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Interesting cyclical observation on the Bitcoin CME weekly RSI
RSI value hints at more to drop, while cyclical timing could suggest price is ready to climb again
Higher timeframes will still matter most
BTC-1,82%
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Bitcoin BTC CME 3D RSI is currently tied for the second most oversold reading ever
2018 bear market bottom is the only more oversold moment
BTC-1,82%
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ChatGPT Year in Review
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Bitcoin BTCUSD weekly forming possible morning star
Closing above the 50% mark of the last local black capitulation candle should lead to a larger push upward
$100,000 remains the most important psychological level
BTC-1,82%
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Does this look like it has a higher probability of going up or down, and why?
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Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) weekly Bollinger Bands are the tightest since March 2017 — right before the most explosive altcoin season ever
Tight Bollinger Bands don’t just represent low volatility — they represent suppressed emotion
When volatility is silent, emotion is loudest beneath the surface
Years of divergence between Bitcoin and altcoins have compressed positioning, expectations, and identity around “what should outperform.” That emotional pressure hasn’t resolved — it’s been stored
This is not the environment to:
• Pre-commit to an alt season
• Size positions based on conviction
• Argue
BTC-1,82%
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Below this Moving Average, fear turns to panic
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