Gold2024

The $BTC market right now is kinda like going to a party and theres 3 girls there and 2 of them have boyfriends.
The only single girl is an ugly girl at the party, and at the start of the night you have no interest...
But as the night goes on you have a couple of drinks, the lights get a bit darker, you tilt your head in a certain particular angle and say to yourself 'actually she doesn't look to bad after all'
It's the same girl you weren't interested in at the start of the party, but due to lack of choice and boredom you change your mind despite nothing fundamentally changing

Not much will happen next 1-3 weeks. Use this time of the year as a mental reset and recharge before we start the new year of 2026.
2025 was an incredible trading year overall. Use this period as a reflection on yourself and your trading… What you can improve on and what you are thankful about this year.
The market is undeniably dogshit right now but there will be some amazing opportunities in 2026, be patient and get excited for that.

I started writing down every trade I take about 4 months ago. It helps me keep in top of my PnL across platforms + reminds me of what made me money as well as what lost me money.
Most importantly it reminds about the why - what about that particular trade caused me to be profitable or take a loss
One of my biggest weaknesses even during times like this is over trading.. and writing down all of the trades I’m taking really is a rude awakening.
This month alone I’ve taken 24 trades over the last 19 days. In the last 2 weeks I’ve only taken 5 trades. Most of my trades happened in the first week

The hardest part about our job is not placing trades at all. This is half the battle right now.
I closed the trades I was in a few days ago for some mixed results and readjusted my trading strategy to match the current market: low timeframe, very strict entries and very selective.
I took SEI on the Xiaomi news and then BTC for a short scalp after the initial data. Asides this I’ve not taken trades in 4 days.
It’s taken me a while to get to this pivotal point, but right now it is 100% risk off mode

Bear market is all but confirmed at this point. We are about to enter 1 month since we were at $100k
Now the game is to wait and then wait some more.
I know many people are feeling let down right now but even during peak bear market we had some plays like CFX and XRP.
Your job is to wait for these plays and not do much in between.
Don’t give back the profit you made the last 2 years and you’ll be in a great position for the next bull market in several years time.

We are now at week 3 below $100k and weeks 2 below $90k.
Many traders, even some of the traders I respect the most on here, spoke in length about how if we spent weeks below the 50 MA, weeks below $100k and weeks below the 2025 yearly open then that would mark the begin of the end of the cycle
Yet somehow… Someway… instead of abiding to their original thesis they have somehow become even more bullish on the way down
There’s no need to flip flop on an asset that is showing all the signs of being on the verge of entering into a bear market. Nothing has happened to indicate we are going to rip

People will keep questioning whether this is a bear market until we are sitting at $60k
A few things in this environment that will help improve profitability:
- don’t hold anything overnight
- set stop losses
- downsize
- be picky
In short, this is risk off mode. And the market continues to show us over and over again. Listen to it.
Last year I remember trading Jan-Mar. This is the period that felt like the closest thing we got to an alt season. I then proceeded to continue trading April-July and roundtripped half of that profit.
I got to the end of that period, did some self reflection and

Remember that even when we find a macro bottom, we often spend may months there before any major reversal happens

Notice the shift in sentiment? People are slowly getting used to the fact we are trading not just below $100k for the second week in a row, but below $90k

The tide goes in and it goes out. It’s crazy to see people get surprised every time the tide goes out…
They’re like a leaf getting tossed around in the wind
$1,000,000 Bitcoin is going to happen in the next 10 years and these same people will have absolutely zero to their name

This is when taking profits the entire year on the way up and during good conditions really pays off
Nothing beats cold, hard cash.
But cash is not the end goal, assets are. So if you have cash on hand… it’s in these times you need to start thinking about your long term plan

People constantly bash Cash, until you see everything collapsing around it and you're left with nothing
I'm semi tempted to start on-ramping some profits I took out this year back to crypto, ready to buy longterm $BTC

Despite the timelines incessant calls for the bottom, BTC is still grinding lower and doing its own thing
No matter which way you look at it, what’s happening now is terrible. Absolutely terrible. We’re on the verge of a second weekly close, not only below 100k this time.. but below 90k.
Each and every bull case keeps getting invalidated almost on a daily basis yet people keep hanging onto hope.
Capital preservation is the most important thing right now. Things will change but right now its like standing in front of a train

Had to catch myself today after bear posting, I’ve never been the type to talk in absolutes and it never ends well
Ive written a list of objective facts to lean bullish and bearish… At this point the list of reasons to be bearish far outweigh reasons to be bullish. Im not talking about short term relief bounces, I’m talking about a macro trend shift.
In this moment I am bearish but am open to a potential shift as new information arrives

there's still time to exit your 'strong' alts.
This 'relative strength in alts' people have been talking about, its fugazi. It's fake. It's not real.
The door is shrinking...

Another day, another grind lower.
The 'obvious' opportunity that I want to see is another leg down similar to 10/10. Perhaps not so violently, but with similar price action.
This slow grind lower with minimal bounces in between is not where I want to be doing business.