Bitcoin bull market hasn't started yet! Samson Mow: $100,000 is just beating inflation

Bitcoin technology infrastructure company Jan3 founder Samson Mow believes the Bitcoin bull market has not yet begun, as Bitcoin recently dipped slightly below $100,000 earlier this week. In a series of bullish posts on X, he predicts that as Bitcoin continues to outperform the 3% U.S. inflation rate, there is still significant room for upward movement. Earlier this year, Mow stated he expects Bitcoin to surge to $1 million amid “short-term and intense turbulence.”

Bitcoin falling below $100K is just beating inflation

(Source: X)

This week, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market continued to decline, with analysts attributing the drop to U.S.-China trade tensions and other macroeconomic factors. On Tuesday, Bitcoin sell-offs intensified, and CoinGecko data showed that by Wednesday, Bitcoin’s price fell to $99,607 — the first time it broke below the psychological $100,000 mark recently. Many retail investors are panicking, worried that the Bitcoin bull market has ended and that a bear market is imminent.

However, Samson Mow’s view is entirely opposite. He posted a series of bullish messages on X, predicting that as Bitcoin continues to outperform inflation by 3%, there remains considerable upside potential. Mow’s logic is that if Bitcoin only beats inflation by 3%, it is far from entering a true bull market. A genuine Bitcoin bull run should deliver multiples or even dozens of times returns, not just preserve value.

In one post, Mow told a commenter that when asked whether a “Christmas candle” (a term often used to describe a large buy pressure and upward momentum) will appear, he “does not feel uncertain.” This indicates Mow’s confidence in a significant short-term rally. The “Christmas candle” is a popular term in crypto communities, referring to a sudden and sharp price surge at year-end, often accompanied by high trading volume.

Historically, Bitcoin has often rebounded strongly at year-end. In December 2020, Bitcoin soared from $18,000 to $29,000. In December 2017, Bitcoin hit a historic bull market peak, jumping from $10,000 to nearly $20,000. If history repeats, Bitcoin could again see explosive growth by the end of 2025.

Cycle theory is dead? Omega cycle is coming

Mow also said on Wednesday that for those who believe in economic cycles, they can expect the cycle to peak in 2026. However, he expressed skepticism about traditional cycle theories. “Bitcoin will stay pretty stable in 2025. If you believe in cyclical fluctuations, then it hasn’t peaked yet,” he said.

He added, “Does this mean the cycle will be longer, peaking in 2026? Or that we’ll see a decade-long bull market like after gold ETFs? Or that the cycle will disappear entirely, entering an Omega cycle? Prepare accordingly.” This statement reveals his deep thoughts on Bitcoin’s future bull market trajectory.

Three Bitcoin bull market scenarios proposed by Mow

Extended cycle theory: The traditional 4-year cycle is lengthened, with the bull market peak delayed until 2026.

Gold ETF model: Similar to the decade-long bull run after the launch of gold ETFs.

Omega cycle: The cycle theory becomes invalid, and Bitcoin enters a perpetual upward trend.

The “Omega cycle” concept has sparked discussion in crypto circles. This theory suggests that as more institutions and countries adopt Bitcoin, its price volatility cycles will diminish, replaced by a steady, continuous rise. This is similar to gold’s performance as a global reserve asset, which, despite fluctuations, shows a clear long-term upward trend.

Historical data on gold ETFs offers useful insights. After the first gold ETF launched in 2004, gold prices rose from $400 per ounce to $1,900 in 2011 — a 375% increase over about 7 years. If Bitcoin ETFs produce a similar effect, then from the approval of Bitcoin ETFs starting in 2024, the bull run could last until 2031 or beyond.

Bitcoin OG selling off is exaggerated

Macro analyst and Wall Street veteran Jodie Wetherly said on Sunday that he believes Bitcoin is in its initial product release phase, with existing holders selling and new traders buying up these tokens. This view has sparked market panic, with many fearing that Bitcoin OGs (original holders) are dumping large amounts, putting pressure on the market.

However, Mow argued on Tuesday that concerns over OGs selling are exaggerated. Traders should focus on the next Bitcoin bull run. “People are panicking because they’ve created a narrative that OGs have already sold over $100,000 worth of Bitcoin and might continue to sell. It’s unbelievable how fear can influence markets. Look at the bigger picture. Bitcoin’s price will go up — it’s just a matter of time.”

He added, “By the way, I don’t know of any OGs actively selling.” This directly counters rumors of widespread OG sell-offs. As a seasoned member of the Bitcoin community with close ties to early holders, Mow’s comments carry credibility.

On-chain data shows some long-term Bitcoin addresses have moved coins, but these transfers don’t necessarily mean selling. Many early holders may simply be transferring assets between wallets or moving Bitcoin to custodians for security. Significant sell-offs would likely be reflected in increased Bitcoin balances on exchanges, which currently isn’t observed.

Reports indicate that a whale holding Bitcoin for 7 years sold $76 million worth and shifted into Ethereum. But this is an isolated case and doesn’t represent the behavior of the entire OG group. Many early adopters remain deeply committed to Bitcoin, having experienced multiple cycles and understanding the importance of long-term holding.

Jan3 attempts to reverse the classic “Fear & Greed Index”

(Source: X)

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is a popular indicator tracking market sentiment toward Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. This week, it returned to the “Extreme Fear” zone. The index considers factors like volatility, trading volume, social media sentiment, and Bitcoin dominance — with lower values indicating more fear, and higher values indicating greed.

However, Jan3 has its own index, aiming to invert the traditional index. “The market is crying out. Bitcoin holders are still accumulating. The Fear & Greed Index is at 23, in the Extreme Greed zone,” the company stated on Wednesday.

Jan3’s inverted index logic is based on the idea that true Bitcoin holders (Holders) and short-term traders (Traders) have very different mindsets. When the traditional index shows “Extreme Fear,” traders are panicking and selling, but long-term holders see this as a good opportunity to buy more Bitcoin at low prices. This contrarian view reveals that Bitcoin’s bull market is driven by believers who focus on the supply of Bitcoin, not its fiat price.

According to Jan3, the current market is in a “Greed” state, contrasting sharply with the traditional “Extreme Fear” reading. This divergence is typical at market bottoms, where retail panic selling coincides with smart money quietly accumulating. Historically, Bitcoin’s major lows have often been accompanied by such emotional divergence.