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Details: ht
The focus of the financial markets is on employment data, particularly the two key indicators of non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate, which will greatly influence the Fed's policy direction in October.
Analysts generally believe that the ideal data scenario should be: a slight rebound in non-farm employment, but overall it still remains in a weak state, indicating that the trend of economic slowdown is ongoing; at the same time, the unemployment rate is between 4.2% and 4.3%, a level that can provide justification for potential rate cuts without causing market panic.
However, the market is also wary of two extreme situations: if the employment data is too strong, such as non-farm payrolls significantly exceeding expectations and the unemployment rate dropping, it may lead the market to worry that the Fed will delay rate cuts, thus pressuring asset prices. On the other hand, if the job market suddenly deteriorates and the unemployment rate rises sharply, this could be interpreted as a signal of a hard landing for the economy. Although in this scenario the market may bet on more aggressive rate cuts, risk assets may first undergo a round of selling.
Therefore, the market generally hopes that the employment data to be released on Friday can remain at a relatively moderate level. This kind of 'non-extreme' data will serve as the best catalyst for promoting healthy market development.
It is worth noting that the cryptocurrency market is also closely monitoring these economic indicators, as they not only affect traditional financial markets but also have a significant impact on the trends of digital assets. Investors are weighing the potential effects of this data on the approval process for cryptocurrency ETFs and the overall market sentiment.