MegaETH public sale starts tonight: a profitable opportunity or a waste of time?

Author: encryption trader cyclop, X

Compiled by: White55, Mars Finance

MegaETH will launch its public sale today (October 27) at 21:00 (UTC+8) on the Sonar platform under Echo. The total supply of MegaETH is 10 billion tokens, with 500 million tokens available for this public sale, and the payment method is USDT.

In this public sale, users can bid through an English auction, with the highest bid reaching $186,282 and the lowest being $2,650. The starting price is $0.0001 (FDV is $1 million), and the maximum price cap is $0.0999 (FDV is $999 million).

Recently (especially today), discussions about the public sale of the Ethereum scaling solution MegaETH on crypto Twitter have been increasing, with the public gearing up for action. What is the real reason driving this wave? Is this public sale really worth participating in? Crypto trader cyclop posted an analysis of this public sale on the X platform, and here are the details.

Recently, the only area where retail investors can make a profit is probably Initial Coin Offerings (ICO):

$PUMP: Any scale of trading can achieve 1.5 times the profit.

$XPL: Any scale of trading can achieve more than 2 times the profit.

$YB: Trading within the upper limit scale can yield 4 times the profit.

Memes have nearly disappeared, and the market value of altcoins has hit new lows repeatedly, while the crash on October 11 has further drained retail investors' funds. Holding tokens randomly from the market is a bad idea.

But what if you just hold stablecoins and then participate in an ICO? You can double or triple the returns on your entire portfolio in just 2-3 months.

The market sentiment has changed. We have officially entered the ICO era - just like every previous cycle.

And Echo itself is currently in a frenzy of speculation. Why? Because of the last sale: $XPL (Plasma).

In the public sale of $XPL , for every 1 dollar deposited, you could earn a profit of 1.5 dollars, without any limit. The project ultimately increased 30 times, with an oversubscription of only 20 times. This means that for every 1000 dollars deposited, you could purchase $XPL at a valuation of 500 million dollars, and after listing, its market capitalization reached 15 billion dollars: the market value increased 30 times.

The best part of the public sale $XPL is that anyone can participate. Whether you have on-chain trading history, influence, or connections to the ecosystem doesn't matter. You just need to go through Echo's KYC and deposit funds (first come, first served, but there is a 30-minute time window in the second phase).

So, why is the public sale of $XPL so profitable, and will $MEGA be the same case? Can everyone profit this time?

In short: no. The reasons are as follows:

$XPL can be profitable because there wasn't much hype around Echo or ICO at the time. They raised 1 billion dollars, which is equivalent to a 20 times oversubscription. There was no multiplier allocation; the funds were distributed equally.

For $MEGA, Polymarket's valuation is over 2.5 billion dollars, actually closer to 3 to 4 billion dollars. This corresponds to an oversubscription of 60 to 80 times. The valuation before going public was only about 4.5 times.

This means that if the funds are evenly distributed, each deposit of 1 dollar will yield about 0.04 dollars in return.

Now, compared to the return of 1.5 dollars for every 1 dollar deposited with $XPL , the profit is approximately 37.5 times different.

The team stated that the minimum allocation amount is $2,650 per person, which means at least $10,000 can be earned.

But calculate it:

If everyone receives the minimum allocation amount of 2650 dollars, there will be 18867 eligible participants.

If the average amount distributed is $5000, there will be 10,000 winners.

At the same time, 100,000 people registered in one day, and the total number of applicants is expected to reach between 400,000 and 500,000.

This means that only about 1 in 50 people can receive the allocation.

In other words, you can't just invest in stablecoins and then pray. Even if you invest 180,000 dollars, if you're not selected, you won't get anything.

I personally believe that the team will prioritize certain user groups and provide them with appropriate rewards, rather than simply allocating 4% of their deposits to everyone.

So, who can actually receive the allocation?

If you meet their priority criteria (high media exposure, long on-chain transaction history), you can easily earn between $10,000 and $30,000 in a day.

If you are a true MegaETH old user, then it is obviously worth participating.

If you're just casually trying your luck with stablecoins, don't expect to make money.

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So, as is customary in the encryption industry: if you are not an early participant, you can only exit the liquidity market.

The best time to fully engage in the ICO craze is $XPL. If you are just waking up to this now - then it's too late.

Ultimately, the public sale of $MEGA is not a lottery, but a filter. Its original intention is to eliminate the masses and leave the real profit opportunities to a specific group.

Don't confuse hype with opportunity; this is not the second $XPL, but rather the public's FOMO: 95% of people will gain nothing, while 5% can earn moderately high profits.

And the harsh reality is that you should know which category you belong to.