Gate Research Institute: In-depth Study of the Oracle Machine Track: Ecological Expansion, Economic Value Capture and Financial Bridge

Summary

• Oracles are the key infrastructure that connects blockchain with the real world: they can safely and transparently bring off-chain data (such as prices, events, asset statuses, etc.) onto the chain, enabling smart contracts to perceive and interact with the real world, becoming the “trust engine” and “data settlement layer” of the Web3 ecosystem.
• Market scale explosion: Oracles have evolved from the price input layer of DeFi protocols to the underlying trust foundation of the entire Web3 ecosystem. By October 2025, the total locked value (TVS) in the oracle sector has exceeded $102.1 billion, with a total market capitalization surpassing $14.1 billion, and annual call volume reaching hundreds of billions of times, becoming an important component of the on-chain data economy.

• Oligopoly Structure and Shift in Competitive Focus: The current market has formed an oligopoly structure dominated by Chainlink (with a market share exceeding 87% and a TVS share of 61.58%). The competitive focus is shifting from a singular emphasis on price feeding efficiency to service quality, sustainability of economic models, and the ability to integrate cross-chain communication. Meanwhile, emerging protocols like Pyth Network and RedStone are rapidly rising in low-latency and high-frequency data scenarios, creating differentiated competitive advantages.

• DeFi, RWA, and institutional adoption have become core driving forces: the growth of oracle has formed a “multiplier effect” pattern. DeFi (total TVL of approximately $168.3 billion) remains the primary battlefield; RWA (with an asset scale exceeding $35 billion) is becoming the most incremental potential institutional growth engine; while emerging applications such as cross-chain communication (CCIP), prediction markets, and AI + Oracle constitute the second growth curve for the future.

• Value capture model transformation: from call volume-driven to service staking model. The industry is shifting from an early revenue structure reliant on call volume to an economic cycle system centered around node staking, security budgets, and service fees. This model provides oracle tokens with long-term sustainable value support and establishes their macro-financial position as a “decentralized trust layer.”
• Future Valuation Anchoring: The long-term value of oracle tokens (such as LINK) is jointly determined by protocol revenue, the quality of TVS growth, and staking ratios. The valuation logic has also shifted from “narrative-driven” to being primarily based on fundamental indicators such as MCap/TVS. Current estimates suggest that the long-term reasonable valuation range for LINK is between 26–35 USD; introducing the Smart Value Recovery (SVR) mechanism could provide an overall valuation amplification effect of about 1.2–1.5 times, with price potential reaching 40–45 USD.

• Macroeconomic Financial Connection and the Birth of “Information Interest Rate”: Oracles are becoming the key hub between real-world finance and on-chain finance. By synchronizing macro data such as bond yields, exchange rates, and interest rate curves in real-time, and exploring CCIP settlement paths with institutions like SWIFT and Visa, oracles are driving the digitalization process of real-world finance, giving rise to a new revenue concept centered around data — the information interest rate.

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