Success is the worst teacher; it will mislead smart people into thinking they won't fail.

I read a couple of short chapters and reflected a bit. Since I was 16, I have indeed had a smooth journey until this year when I fell. I often feel like I have some strength within me and am reluctant to admit that it's luck. (Except when I'm pretending to be modest.)

This success has also filled me with certainty about my judgment, leading me to overlook the relationship between risk and luck. It's like this position for bottom-fishing/shorting, where the winning rate is at least 80%, but I ignored the possibility of 20% occurring.

It's good that although I like to take risks, I won't endanger myself; at least I can start over.

Failure can also be the worst teacher, making smart people think their decisions are foolish, but in fact, it is just the exact occurrence of a low-probability risk.

Everyone's decisions are always thoughtful, and you can always find suitable reasons for your initial decisions. However, the results afterwards are often not ideal.

To understand everyone's decisions, just like how the rich cannot understand why the poor buy lottery tickets. However, due to the different environments, experiences, and knowledge of both, even if the IQ is the same, the decisions made are completely different.

Well, it's written a bit out of order, but it's important to understand that every step is unpredictable. Many KOLs wouldn't have made money if they weren't a bit lucky. Even if Brother Sun was born a year later, it would be hard to replicate his current achievements.