Let me explain why I do not see a slow bull run in this round.

In this round of market, BTC rose from 15450 to 124500, exactly eight times, and the candlestick chart looks very nice, with many people starting to continuously increase their positions. My strategy this time is very simple: sell all altcoins in batches during the bull tail phase, sell a large portion of BTC, and finally keep 20% BTC + 80% U. This way, on one hand, I can guard against a long bull run, and on the other hand, guard against a bear market, at least I can have chips to buy at the bottom.
Many people have told me that with institutions, ETFs, and large companies participating now, BTC might enter a prolonged bull run. If you only hold 20% BTC, you might not be able to buy back the remaining U, which is equivalent to selling at a loss. My view is different. ETFs are not true hoarders of coins; the investors behind them will consider that if they move slowly, they could get stuck. Therefore, it could potentially trigger a "spiral sell-off." Once that happens, the destructive power is significant. You can't just look at buying without considering the selling pressure.
From a long-term perspective, every bull tail has a bubble, and human greed will push the price to extremes, leading to another major correction. Historically, bear markets have typically seen declines of over 75%, and in 2022 it also fell by 79%. This is not an exception, but a pattern. Even with large players like MicroStrategy, their cost is over seventy thousand, and many small and medium-sized companies don't hold much; they are more focused on speculation. The amount currently held by ETFs, if there is a sell-off, will definitely be very scary.
At the end of a bull run, everyone's mentality is: cashing out, buying houses and cars to show off, fearing that others will dump first, and fearing that they will be left holding the bag. At that moment, the funds are limited, and the buying pressure cannot be sustained, leading to a sharp decline being inevitable. Even if there are many die-hard believers, it is impossible to absorb the selling indefinitely. More people will choose to sell due to fear or to take profits, and once a stampede occurs, ETFs may also get dragged down.
So what I worry about more is: many people have managed to dollar-cost average to the bull run peak, seeing their net worth in the millions or tens of millions on paper, but because they hold onto everything without selling, they end up enduring a round of bear market, retracting 50%-75%, and in the end, they have no USDT to buy the dip.
My suggestion is: at the end of a bull run, you must keep some USDT, at least 50%, and even better 80%. Don’t get attached to altcoins, sell all of them, keep some BTC, and convert most into stablecoins. Don't make the same mistake many people made in the last bull run, thinking there will be an eternal bull market, only to hold onto the bubble with a full position and ultimately not survive the bear market.