Gold in 2030: My vision of a market that nobody really understands

Wow! What a mess with the gold predictions. Everyone seems to have a crystal ball and absolute certainty that the yellow metal will reach stratospheric prices. As an investor who has suffered years of false promises, allow me to offer my unfiltered perspective.

I have been following the gold market for a decade and I can tell you that no one, and I repeat, NO ONE knows for sure where it will go. The "experts" talk about $3,100 in 2025 and $5,000 in 2030 as if those numbers were written in stone. Please! Did they predict the pandemic? Or the war in Ukraine? Or any of the events that really moved the market?

Yes, gold charts show a cup and handle pattern over 10 years that looks bullish. And yes, gold has reached new highs in almost all the currencies of the world. But the obsession with chart patterns seems almost like a religion to me. I have seen perfect patterns fail miserably when economic reality hits.

Monetary dynamics are crucial, of course. M2 continues to grow and the CPI is not stopping either. But what really irritates me is that absurd claim that "gold shines in an inflationary environment." What a simplification! Gold was practically dead for much of 2022 while inflation soared. Where was that shine then?

And that correlation with inflation expectations... come on! The TIP ETF and gold have diverged more times than they admit. Furthermore, the idea that gold does NOT thrive during recessions contradicts what many small investors think when we buy the metal as a safe haven.

I find it amusing to see how the major platforms never mention the real geopolitical risks or the manipulation that we all suspect exists in this market. Theodore Butler's theory on manipulation is barely mentioned in passing, when it should be central.

And what about the institutional predictions? Goldman Sachs says $2,700, UBS bets on $2,700, JPMorgan between $2,775 and $2,850... Curiously, all grouped within a narrow range. Coincidence? I doubt it.

My personal conclusion: gold will rise, probably to $3,000-$4,000 in the coming years, but not for the technical reasons that analysts love to mention. It will rise because trust in governments is at historic lows, because global debt is unsustainable, and because in an unstable world, having something tangible will always be preferable to digital promises.

Silver, by the way, could be the real star. More volatile, yes, but with greater explosion potential when the market finally wakes up.

If I have learned anything, it is that gold does not follow rules; it follows human fear and greed. And of that, my friends, we will always have abundance.