This morning I cleared my short-term ETH position, getting on board at 3900 and leaving at 4200; a little profit is enough for some eating and drinking during the National Day holiday.

The main reason for leaving the position is seeing that the U.S. government is highly likely to shut down on October 1st, which will directly affect the release of labor data on October 3rd. I vaguely remember that a few years ago, during Trump's presidency, there was also a shutdown due to disagreements between the two parties. I looked up some information online, and the shutdown lasted for 36 days from December 2018 to January 2019, during which BTC fell by 6%. The price range that year was over 3000 dollars each.
Everyone is aware that the employment data from the United States is quite crucial this time, as it is basically used to determine whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again and by how much. If the data is delayed due to a government shutdown, I personally believe it is highly likely to intensify market fluctuations in the short term.
In addition to the three judgment factors, the first is that the price has reached the resistance level of the technical indicators. Currently, although it has broken through the previous high, the trading volume is insufficient, and there is indeed a possibility of further retracement. The second factor is that in the past two years, the market during the National Day holiday has shown retracement and bottoming out. I am not sure if this is due to domestic funds leaving the market for the holiday, but the data is here. While it may not form a regular pattern, at least it serves as a basis for judgment.
The third point is that the long positions at the 100,000 phase bottom on the liquidation map have accumulated again over the weekend, indicating that the bullish momentum is still relatively strong. Considering the sentiment indicators in the market, I have always believed that the current market's squeeze on the bullish contracts has not reached an extremely terrifying level; the bullish voices in the market are still quite consistent. Many experienced retail investors are actually in a wait-and-see state, and the outflow data of BTC and ETH ETFs in the past two days indirectly proves this. (Figure 1)
A gentleman does not stand under a dangerous wall. The market that is most averse to risk is the one with policy uncertainty, so taking short-term profits and getting on board while observing is my operational decision during the holiday. Long-term positions still remain unchanged. At this stage, holding a position that can be flexibly adjusted is more important than anything else. Of course, this is just my personal opinion and may not be correct, so please consider it cautiously.
Recently, the concept of DEX has been very popular. I made some profits from short-term small positions in ASTER and AVNT, which I also mentioned in previous updates and the comment section. The currencies endorsed by Boss Zhao are worth considering for long-term planning. Of course, long-term position layout does not necessarily need to rush into the moment's heat. If you review most of the new currencies that can rise more than 10 times in this round, they generally go through a one-year dormant period, and after violently clearing the leveraged chips, there will be a sustained climbing period of 2-3 months.
If you have more than 2 years of experience, after understanding the fundamentals clearly, you can wait for a price pullback to start small Position DCA, which is still worth laying out. Personally, I believe that DEX will be one of the trends in the cryptocurrency circle in the future, with many rising stars in this track. There was UNI that became legendary in 2021, and there will be HYPE that will dominate in 2024. The DEX track is not very crowded overall, and there is still a lot of speculation space for RWA and DIFI derivatives.
Speaking of HYPE, I have seen some interesting data on this platform, and I want to share it with everyone. Is this just a prank or a glimmer of hope? (Image 2) #GatePerpDEX正式上线 #加密市场反弹 #BTC走势分析