XRP is close to a reversal: data indicates seller fatigue

The price of XRP has decreased by almost 23% over the past month, making it one of the weakest assets of the quarter. However, at the end of the week, the token gained 6%, and a number of technical and on-chain indicators suggest that the sell-off phase may

Investors have reached a point of exhaustion.
On-chain data shows that XRP holders are close to a state of capitulation. This often happens during the formation of a market bottom.

The key indicator Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) assesses whether investors are in profit or in loss. When the NUPL value goes deep into the negative zone, it means that most holders have realized losses — a classic signal of exhaustion.

Short-term holders at a loss: Glassnode
According to Glassnode, the short-term NUPL for XRP has dropped to a yearly low of –0.20 at a price of around $2.30.
Previously, in April and June, similar values preceded strong rebounds:

On April 8, with NUPL –0.13, XRP rose by 20% in four days.
On June 22, with NUPL at –0.15, the token gained 74% in a month.
The long-term NUPL has also dropped to a six-month low of 0.53, indicating a reduction in profits for older holders. Such a synchronous decline in both indicators is a rare occurrence, typically coinciding with the end of a bearish phase.

Momentum indicators confirm the reversal scenario
Technical data strengthen on-chain signals. The relative strength index (RSI) shows what is known as hidden bullish divergence: the price forms a higher low while the RSI forms a lower low. This occurs when the asset temporarily cools off within a long-term uptrend.

The XRP chart shows such a structure from April 7 to October 10, indicating a gradual recovery of internal momentum even against the backdrop of price decline. The coincidence of RSI and NUPL signals strengthens the likelihood that the market is close to a reversal.

Technical structure: signs of correction completion
On the XRP chart, three consecutive "death crosses" have formed when the short-term moving averages cross the long-term ones. Such crosses usually occur closer to the final stage of the decline when selling pressure gradually wanes.

Exponential Moving Averages ( EMA ) smooth price fluctuations and allow you to see the underlying trend direction:

The 20-day EMA has already fallen below the 100-day and 200-day;
The 50-day has crossed the 100-day from top to bottom — a typical final stage of a bear cycle.
At the time of publication, XRP is trading around $2.35. A close above $2.44 will be the first technical confirmation of strength, and a breakout above $2.59 ( the 200-day EMA) will open the way to $2.82 and $3.10.

If the price drops below $2.28, the recovery scenario will weaken, and a retest of the levels $2.08–$1.77 will become likely. This zone may serve as the final support of the current cycle.

Summarizing the results
On-chain metrics and technical signals indicate that XRP may be close to a local bottom.
Long-term holders maintain their positions, while short-term investors have already reached the point of capitulation —
a scenario that historically often precedes a market reversal.