my thoughts on Plasma right now:

it's still a narrative that can't be ignored.

I still believe it will be one of the outperformers as btc moves toward new highs, and at current valuations it feels pretty cheap.

if btc makes a new high and finally catches up to gold, there's a good chance Q4 becomes the one we've been waiting for, the alt szn that CT have reached a strong consensus no longer exists.

in every alt rally, big or small, the strongest narratives born since the previous cycle have always had their runners.

now we finally have a way to gain direct capital exposure to the growth of the stablecoin sector.

some say ethena has already outperformed, but the alt season I'm talking about isn't some small 2x-3x gay thing. (I also believe ethena will be trading much higher by eoy.)

in my view, Plasma is currently in this position:

> there is farming dilution from ecosystem funds.
> it remains the main player in the strongest narrative, stablecoin infra.

and as those who participated in the 2020 DeFi boom know well, the fate of a project that starts with early incentive programs is usually decided when the decline caused by farming incentives begins to slow (due to the price down), eventually becomes negligible, and the price finds its bottom.

if momentum builds from that bottom, it leads to a strong rebound. if not, it keeps bleeding and eventually fades out of the market.

an older example of the former is Uniswap, and a more recent one is Sui.

I believe Plasma will follow a similar path.

farming incentives are not a bad thing. without fundamentals, they can lead to a death spiral, but the tangible achievements Plasma has already shown within the stablecoin sector make those incentives more of a catalyst, helping it move onto a larger stage.

$XPL will eventually go through a phase of price discovery, and I think that will happen in Q4.

once again,

trillions.