#美国政府停摆 Ethereum is at a critical moment, the 1-hour chart shows it is hovering at the end of a triangular convergence, and the market is about to迎来方向性突破.

From a technical perspective, 3983.61 is an important resistance level. If the bulls can break through this position, the upward space will be opened. On the other hand, 3791.35 is a key support level; once it is broken, it may indicate a short-term trend reversal to bearish. Currently, the price is fluctuating around the middle band of the Bollinger Bands near 3887, with the bulls slightly in control, but an increase in trading volume is still needed to confirm the subsequent trend direction.

In terms of technical indicators, the Bollinger Bands have notably narrowed, indicating that volatility has decreased to a low level, and the market may be brewing a significant breakthrough. At the same time, the MACD indicator is showing a bullish divergence pattern, with the red histogram continuously expanding, and the DIF and DEA lines forming a golden cross and diverging upwards, indicating that short-term momentum is biased towards the bulls. There is a relatively dense accumulation of chips in the price range of 3950-3980, forming a support zone. For the bears to break through, they need to match it with sufficient selling volume.

In terms of the market environment, the expectations for interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have eased, and overall risk appetite is on the rise. On-chain data shows that large holding addresses have increased their holdings by about 120,000 ETH in the past 24 hours, with their average cost concentrated around 3850, forming a relatively solid support. However, it is important to note that the funding rates in the derivatives market are slightly high, which poses a risk of liquidation due to excessive concentration of long leverage.

Based on the current market situation, the following strategies can be considered: If the price breaks through 3983, a long position can be taken, targeting the 4050-4100 range; if it falls below 3790, it is recommended to stop loss in a timely manner and wait and see for potential buying opportunities around 3720; within the 3790-3983 range, a high sell low buy oscillation strategy can be adopted, with a 50-point stop loss to control risk.

The market is changing rapidly. Please make judgments based on your own risk tolerance. This analysis only represents current market observations and should not be used as a basis for investment decisions.