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Why did the Fed cut interest rates, but the US stock market and Bitcoin fell instead?
Yesterday, Fed Chair Powell announced a 25 basis point rate cut in October and mentioned preparing to stop tapering in December, which is pretty much in line with our previous expectations.
However, after the news came out, U.S. stocks and Bitcoin both experienced a slight fall.
This is mainly because the market has priced in a rate cut in October, so it surged in advance, and now the positive news has landed, which in turn is a negative.
Moreover, yesterday Powell's speech was relatively tough. He stated that unless the unemployment rate rises significantly, the likelihood of continuing to cut interest rates in December is low.
He emphasized that the current unemployment rate is 4.3%, the lowest in history, so unless the unemployment rate rises to above 4.5%, a rate cut is only possible in December.
The CME FedWatch Tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has fallen from 95% to 67.8%.
Previously, everyone thought there would be another rate cut in December, but Powell's speech has increased the uncertainty of a rate cut in December, somewhat beyond market expectations.
However, in the medium to long term, interest rate cuts and stopping the balance sheet reduction will be beneficial for the rise of risk assets.
As there will be more and more money in the market and interest rates continue to decline, this money will flow into higher-risk investments in pursuit of higher returns.
However, these fund inflows take time and usually first flow into the US stock market, and then slowly into the crypto market. Don't rush, let the bullets fly for a while.
What is the situation with on-chain data?
From the data, although the BTC price is falling, the turnover rate has not increased significantly, and the selling pressure is not high.
It indicates that most people are relatively calm, with only short-term investors selling and long-term investors not making any moves.
The distribution of Bitcoin chips remains very stable, mainly following the movements of the US stock market in the short term. If the financial reports of US tech companies perform well and the US stock market rebounds, Bitcoin will also follow the rebound.
From the holding data, it can be seen that large holders' addresses are continuously buying BTC.
They are not very sensitive to prices; in contrast, retail investors are more sensitive to prices, and the recent selling pressure mainly comes from retail investors.
The number of Bitcoins in the exchange is also continuously decreasing, which indicates that people still have confidence in the long-term trend of Bitcoin.
The amount of Bitcoin in the exchange now is similar to that in June 2019, which is very different from before.
In the past, when Bitcoin was rising, many people would transfer their coins to the exchange in preparation for selling.
But this time, since Trump included Bitcoin in the strategic reserves, the coins in the exchange have been decreasing.
This indicates that Bitcoin has become an important asset for global investors, fundamentally changing its previous halving pattern over the past four years.
The boss of MicroStrategy made a bold prediction about the price of Bitcoin. He believes that BTC will rise to 150,000 USD by the end of the year, will reach 1 million USD in the next 4-8 years, and will rise to 20 million USD in the next 20 years.
In the short term, the Fed's interest rate cut in October and the end of balance sheet reduction in December have already been priced in by the market, so the good news materializing is actually bad news.
Moreover, yesterday's hawkish remarks by Powell have created uncertainty about a rate cut in December, leading to a pullback in both the US stock market and the crypto market.
However, the issue is not significant, and the medium to long-term trend remains upward.
Top investors watch trends, second-tier investors look at data, and third-tier investors focus on candlesticks. Since the overall direction is still a large influx of money, it's highly likely that after the adjustment, it will continue to rise.