Last night's market data was a bit strange.

U.S. stocks plummeted collectively, with the S&P down just over 1% and the Nasdaq even worse, dropping nearly 2%. But what is truly baffling is that: gold is down, the dollar is down, and Bitcoin is down—only U.S. Treasuries are up. This kind of configuration is something I've never seen before; it feels like investors are frantically fleeing from all "non-essentials."

What does this situation usually mean? The market is no longer telling stories and is starting to recognize reality.

The trigger point may be the poor data that clustered together last night:

First, let's take a look at the layoff report released by Challenger—In October, US companies announced layoffs of 153,000 people, a staggering 183% increase year-on-year, marking the highest record for the same period in 22 years. Next, the unofficial non-farm payroll data (Revelio Labs) is even more heartbreaking: the originally reported 60,000 new jobs for September was revised down to 33,000, a direct halving; and the October data completely flipped, turning into -9,100, making it the second worst month of the year, only after the wave at the beginning of the year.

In theory, with such poor employment data, expectations for interest rate cuts should rise, and the stock market and gold should rebound accordingly. But in reality, it is completely the opposite.

Why?

First of all, this "bad" is not an ordinary "economic slowdown," but is accompanied by clear signs of recession. Investors are beginning to question: even if interest rates are cut, can it really save the fundamentals? (Interest rate cuts and market rescue are never the same thing) When the news gets so bad that it starts to shake confidence, the market will treat "bad news" as "bad news" honestly.

Secondly, although the market has adjusted the probability of a rate cut in December from over 60% to 70%, this is just a response at the price level —