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The Doomsday Clock ( showed the date when the cryptographic protection of many crypto projects could collapse. If the forecast is to be believed, after March 8, 2028, quantum computers will be capable of breaking the private keys of the Bitcoin blockchain, threatening crypto wallets totaling over $2.5 trillion.
According to Edwards, the threat of quantum computing highlights the vulnerability of the crypto market — without migrating to post-quantum algorithms like FIPS-204 from NIST, the market risks facing a collapse of trust.
But there are other opinions as well. Google analyst Craig Gidney )Craig Gidney( believes that the pace of technology development and the resources of quantum computers will not allow the RSA algorithm to be broken before 2035. Naoris Protocol director David Carvalho )David Carvalho( predicts that Bitcoin may face quantum risk by 2030. Blockstream co-founder Adam Back )Adam Back( agrees with Edwards' arguments but suggests that the real threat to the Bitcoin ecosystem may not arise for another 20 years.
What scale can a quantum threat reach for Bitcoin, what alternative solutions may exist, and what are the risks of transitioning to post-quantum algorithms.