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After the U.S. government shutdown: Key economic data latency, the Fed's interest rate cut decision is in a dilemma.
[Block Rhythm] The aftershocks of the U.S. government shutdown have not yet dissipated, and Wall Street is already in a panic.
A large pile of economic data that has been accumulated for more than a month is set to be released, with the first to emerge being the September employment report. An economist from an investment bank speculates that it may come as early as this Friday, but it is more likely to be delayed until early next week.
What’s worse? The CPI, PPI, and PCE inflation indicators for October may not be released at all in the worst-case scenario. It’s important to note that PCE is the data that the Federal Reserve pays the most attention to.
Even if the labor statistics bureau forces out some data, the quality won't be much better - by the time the data comes out, the flowers will have wilted, so what’s there to see?
Now the Federal Reserve is in a dilemma. The September employment data is delayed, and the October inflation data may not be available at all. The upcoming meeting will discuss whether to lower interest rates for the third consecutive time, but they don't have enough cards in hand. Making decisions with incomplete data, isn't that like driving with your eyes closed?