I. Market Overview

The current Ethereum (ETH) market is in a significant downward adjustment phase. According to the latest daily candlestick data, the latest closing price of ETH is 3138.21, having significantly retraced from the 14-day high of 3982.58, with a minimum drop to 3004 during this period. Recent volatility has been intense, with daily fluctuations often exceeding 10%, and trading volume remains high. Especially in the past 48 hours, the hourly chart shows that ETH dropped to a low of 3069, followed by a rebound, but the upward momentum is limited, oscillating repeatedly in the 3100 to 3150 range, with the latest hourly trading volume at 337.609, which is sluggish compared to recent daily average volumes. From analysts' opinions and mainstream news reports, the current market sentiment is in a state of extreme panic and wait-and-see, "extreme bearish sentiment is not a good thing," aligning with the general pessimistic voices in the market. Meanwhile, some institutional investors have had their long positions liquidated, suffering heavy losses, indicating that high-risk leveraged operations are facing significant challenges.

II. Technical Analysis
From the 14-day candlestick perspective, the technical outlook for ETH shows a clear downward trend. The highest point is 3565.84, and the lowest point is 3004. The current price is only showing a relatively small rebound from the low point and has not formed a significant bottom structure. Support can be temporarily set at the lowest points of the 14-day candlestick at 3004 and 3069, while resistance is at the recent high of 3142.01 and the previous retracement range of 3231.54 to 3249. The hourly chart over the past 48 hours further verifies that the price has tested the 3069 and 3004 levels multiple times, indicating a defensive buying intention in this range. However, every time it approaches the 3142 to 3170 range, it faces resistance, and there has not been a sustained breakout. In terms of volume, the trading volume has expanded in recent days, including a peak of 540495 in a single day and a recent low of 23184.8, indicating that some capital is still supporting at lower levels, but selling pressure remains heavy. Hourly fluctuations show that ETH's short-term rebounds are repeatedly hindered at the 3140 to 3170 levels, while support is found between 3069 and 3004 during pullbacks. The overall trend is a weak oscillation pattern, lacking effective breakout signs.

III. News and Policy Interpretation
Based on recent market information, the ETH market has been impacted by multiple negative factors in the short term:
- Mainstream media report that "Ethereum has fallen below $3100, and the market believes ETH poses a greater risk than BTC," and that "'Big Brother' ETH long positions have been liquidated, resulting in a loss of $3.6 million," reflecting a decline in investor confidence, with actual market activity showing a stampede among bulls.
- There are reports that "Arthur Hayes is selling more ETH," indicating that some large speculators are fleeing, and the candlestick data also shows that the sharp declines during this period corresponded with selling pressure.
- However, some analysts state that "Tom Lee believes the ETH trend remains unchanged," indicating that some professional investors still hold a relatively neutral view on the long-term direction. In terms of policy, there have been no significant changes or new information in the past 24 hours, week, or month that have directly impacted ETH, which does not constitute a source of disturbance.

IV. Analysts' Views
Overall, analysts' opinions are cautious, with a clear defensive tone. Key points extracted include:
- "Ethereum has been quite volatile recently; manage your positions carefully when entering in batches!" "Forced liquidation should be below $2200; otherwise, significant problems and psychological collapse may occur."
- "ETH is also in the 3088 to 2888 range; it seems this 2888 has been called for about a month now without any recovery."
- "Long positions have about 50% to 70% profit, moving to breakeven. Ethereum has been continuously eating up profits!"
- "ETH is currently around 3238; move the stop loss to 3270."
These views are generally consistent with the candlestick data. ETH has tested the 3000 to 3100 support range multiple times, and some analysts have also highlighted the importance of position control, but there has not yet been an actual recovery at the lower 2888 level, indicating cautious market observation. Downside risks should be monitored, but there may be localized rebound opportunities.

V. Future Trend Predictions and Operational Suggestions
Based on the actual movement of the candlestick chart, if ETH cannot effectively break through the resistance above 3142 to 3170, it will continue to oscillate in the 3069 to 3142 range. If it breaks below 3069, it will directly test 3004 and even 2888 (the range of interest for analysts). However, in the short term, the hourly chart shows signs of a weak rebound after continuous testing of support, and if the volume does not support it clearly, the height of the rebound is limited and may be blocked back by overhead pressure at any time. Operational suggestions:
- Approaching the 3069 to 3004 range, partial long positions can be established, but strict light positions and realistic stop losses must be set.
- If it can effectively stabilize above 3142 to 3170 with volume support, consider following the trend for long positions, with short-term targets focusing on resistance zones of 3231.54 to 3249.
- If it breaks below 3004, risk avoidance is necessary, and decisive stop losses should be implemented to prevent further stampedes.
- Strongly recommend maintaining a phased entry of funds to avoid blindly bottom-fishing with high leverage, preventing account losses from extreme volatility.

VI. Risk Warning
The current market risk for Ethereum is extremely high. The daily and hourly charts have exhibited significant volatility continuously, with intraday fluctuations approaching 10% or more. The current candlestick data shows multiple spikes followed by declines, with rebound heights constrained. If it falls below 3069 and 3004 again, it could easily trigger more passive stop losses and liquidations among bulls, accelerating the decline. News evidence also indicates that leveraged funds and large bullish positions have seen widespread liquidations, and investors need to be highly vigilant about extreme market risks, carefully controlling positions and leverage, and should not rush to increase positions due to short-term rebounds. Pay attention to the key support at 3004 to 3069; if it is effectively lost, decisive reductions or stop losses are necessary to prevent deep market declines.