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Recently, I took a look at Polymarket's prediction data, and it's quite interesting.



The probability of BTC dropping below $80,000 has surged from 28% to 37%—market sentiment is indeed turning cautious. However, looking back, the probability of a rebound back above $100,000 is surprisingly still at 61%, indicating that bullish confidence hasn't completely collapsed.

This is a bit contradictory. On one hand, panic is spreading, while on the other hand, expectations still hold some hope.

What do you think? Will Bitcoin break 80,000 first, or will it go straight to 100,000? The market is currently like standing at a crossroads, and the direction has not yet been determined.
BTC1.49%
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JustAnotherWalletvip
· 11-22 04:19
The probability of breaking 80,000 has risen to 37%, which shows that people are losing confidence. But 61% are still optimistic about above 100,000. This sense of wavering—the people on Polymarket are really conflicted too.
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blockBoyvip
· 11-19 17:41
To put it bluntly, it's gambling; neither the long positions nor the short positions want to admit defeat. This data looks like the market is painting BTC.
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GateUser-beba108dvip
· 11-19 04:52
To be honest, this data is ridiculous. An 80,000 probability rises to 37%, but at the same time, there's also a 61% rebound to 100,000? Doesn't this just mean that everyone is particularly confused? Haha
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GasGuzzlervip
· 11-19 04:50
If it breaks 80,000, then let it break, it's just a matter of time, and by then there will be a bunch of people buying the dip.
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PumpingCroissantvip
· 11-19 04:46
This data is really interesting, the long positions and short positions are all gambling, no one can really say for sure, right?
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SolidityStrugglervip
· 11-19 04:37
Break 80,000? Forget it, it should have fallen long ago, this wave of long positions is just stubborn.
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