#特朗普撤销农业产品关税 The October election situation is a continuous defeat; Trump's silence this time is not calmness, but fear of speaking out and causing a bigger mess.

The US stock market has corrected for two weeks, and in the past, he would have jumped out to criticize the Federal Reserve. Why is he acting strangely mute now? The answer is simple—his current political crisis is far more serious than market fluctuations. His approval rating has been continuously declining since October, and he has suffered several key election losses in a row. His political capital is almost depleted, so how can he be concerned about the ups and downs of the stock market?

What’s even more deadly is the public opinion trend. Right now, voters are most frustrated with the out-of-control cost of living and the eye-popping inflation data. At this critical moment, if he jumps out and calls for interest rate cuts and monetary easing? That would be like handing a knife to his opponents, waiting to be labeled as "indifferent to people's livelihoods." He understands this political cost clearly, so he naturally chooses to stay silent.

Moreover, with the current data gap, no one dares to draw conclusions about the inflation trend, and even the Federal Reserve is watching, so there is no need for him to rush to express his views and seek trouble.

But don’t misunderstand that he is really idle—expanding actions in Venezuela, announcing food tariff exemptions, and promoting the tariff rebate check program are all aimed at boosting his approval ratings. For him, stock market performance is a secondary indicator; approval ratings are the lifeline.

Wait for the PCE data in October and the CPI report in November. If inflation goes down, he will definitely take action immediately; if it continues to rise, then he will maintain the "steady persona".

My judgment is straightforward: this silence is not a change in his character, but a survival strategy forced by reality. Political prospects are a hundred times more important than market sentiment; speaking out might lose votes, so it's better to first secure the base. As for whether the market will fall or not? As long as the approval rating remains stable, everything else is just fluff.