The countdown to the December Fed meeting is on, and the market is in the midst of a high-stakes gamble: rate cut or not? This question will directly determine whether the year-end market is a celebration or a plunge.

Looking back at the previous two rate cut cycles, Bitcoin soared from $70,000 all the way to the $100,000 mark, showcasing the power of unleashed liquidity. If a 25 basis point rate cut really happens this time, liquidity will loosen up immediately, the US Dollar Index will come under pressure, and crypto assets, as high-beta targets, will most likely reap the first wave of gains—BTC and ETH will surge to test new resistance levels, and tech stocks will likely join the rally as well. After all, inflation data is already approaching the 2% target, the job market is cooling, and the Fed does have room to maneuver. Gradual easing is almost a market consensus.

But don’t forget the other scenario.

What if they hold rates steady? The impact of unmet expectations is no joke. The total crypto market cap could evaporate by 15% instantly, Bitcoin might see a short-term pullback of 10%-20% to test support, and US stocks could repeat a crash scenario. Hawkish voices inside the Fed haven’t quieted down—many still worry about an inflation rebound. If they prevail and stick to high rates, tightening liquidity will put all risk assets under pressure. Bottom-fishers could get trapped, volatility in the derivatives market will soar, and average traders simply won’t be able to handle such wild swings in a single day.

Bottom line, it’s all about betting on expectations being met. Although the current 66% probability of a rate cut looks solid, the Fed never plays by the book—a single data miss could flip the market. Some profit from arbitraging the volatility, while others blindly chase the trend and get trapped. That’s the difference.

Are you ready for this round of market action? If there really isn’t a rate cut, will you choose to buy the dip or sit on the sidelines and play it safe?