#数字货币市场回升 A month ago, Mayuravarma was a legend in the on-chain prediction market. This trader started with $5,000 and, through betting on sports events on a decentralized prediction platform, grew his account to $3.8 million in just one month—an astonishing 760 times return on investment, briefly ranking in the top six of the platform's profit leaderboard. His trading strategies went viral in the community, and copy trading Bots were everywhere.

But this myth only lasted for seven days.

His specialty is called "tail-end betting": he specifically targets events that are nearing their end, where the outcome is almost certain, entering the market to lock in "certain profits" with low odds. NFL, NHL, NBA, and college football, he has laid out his strategy across the board. On the most glorious day in mid-November, he made a single profit of $600,000 from a Bruins game, with total earnings soaring to $3.8M.

Then the black swan came. It came in succession.

Starting from November 19, all the college American football and NHL events he bet on were major upsets. He bet $1.2 million on the Golden Eagles game, thinking he could safely earn $750,000, but in the final moments of the match, the situation reversed, and he lost everything. Within a week, he faced a series of failures, resulting in a total loss of principal and interest. His account dropped from $3.8 million to just $280,000, and finally, he simply closed the account and disappeared.

Sports events are inherently unpredictable: injuries, referee mistakes, sudden overtime, and the "certainty" at the end is often an illusion. This platform has no position limits, no forced liquidation, winners take all, but losers can also be wiped out overnight. You think you're making that little profit, but in reality, you're gambling with your entire fortune.

Even more strangely, shortly after he disappeared, a new account called gmanas appeared on the platform, employing trading methods that were like twins to Mayuravarma, winning 1.5 million dollars in a short time. The community began to speculate: is this his alternate account? On November 21, a new wallet suspected to be his emerged, pouring 1 million dollars all-in on Penguins, resulting in a disastrous 0:5 loss. On the 26th, he bet on the Lakers and made a small profit of 40%, but the principal was already not what it used to be.

Someone summarized on X: "Decentralization prediction markets won't limit how much you can win, but they won't stop you from self-destruction."

The lesson of this story is simple: on-chain leverage is a double-edged sword, and the "myth" of no risk control can quickly turn into a "joke." End-of-period strategies may be stable in traditional finance, but when you bet your entire position in the last ten minutes of a single match, any unexpected event can lead you to zero.

$BTC $ETH $BNB