24 Billion USD BTC Options Expiration — Why This Event Is More Important Than You Think

We have experienced many Fridays with Bitcoin options expiration. Most of the time, it passes quite quietly. But this time is different — and ignoring it could lead to a complete misjudgment of the upcoming market movement. Approximately $24 billion in BTC options will expire, the largest ever. Over the past few days, Bitcoin’s price has been “locked” within a narrow range, mainly due to hedging activities by dealers. When options expire, this price-anchoring force disappears — and volatility usually returns very quickly. Important Context to Understand Last week, spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced significant outflows, but BTC price maintained a relatively stable structure. The clearest decline occurred on Sunday, when the ETF market closed and liquidity was thin. This indicates that the decline was not caused by direct ETF selling pressure, but by weekend movements. This week, Monday and Tuesday continued to see ETF capital outflows. However, until midweek, when the US market was not fully active, BTC remained sideways. If this is a true strong downtrend, the price would find it difficult to absorb such continuous selling pressure. Derivatives Are Creating an Imbalance Open interest remains highFunding rate is nearly neutral or slightly negativeShorts are comfortable, longs are cautious This kind of structure is often very fragile when real capital flows appear, especially right after a major expiration. Just one catalyst can trigger a very rapid market move. What Does Market Sentiment Say? Currently, the overall sentiment is fear, but not panic. Historically, this often appears closer to short-term lows rather than peaks. Selling pressure is also showing signs of slowing down, indicating the market may be seeking a balance point. In summary, what is the structure indicating? 🔸 Record options expiration → loss of price-anchoring effect 🔸 Weak ETF capital flows, but price still absorbs it 🔸 Fearful sentiment, not yet exhausted 🔸 High leverage + flat funding → unstable market Personal Perspective 👉 Current data leans towards neutral to slightly positive, not supporting a deep decline scenario, but confirmation is needed. If, after expiration, ETF capital flows stabilize, the likelihood of a short squeeze is very high. Conversely, if capital outflows increase significantly when the US market is fully active, expiration could amplify the downtrend. This is not an ordinary Friday. Market structure, capital flows, and sentiment are converging — and when that happens, a strong move is often not far behind.