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Looking at the recent on-chain performance and K-line trends, Ethereum is indeed accumulating energy in preparation for the next move. I will break down the core logic I observed.
**How the price structure is developing**
After dropping to 2620 in September, Ethereum did not continue to decline but instead quickly recovered the fall. In October and November, it formed a very clear "higher lows and higher highs" micro upward channel—which is technically called a "gentle uptrend." The four-hour BOLL indicator is now interesting; the middle band is around 2850, which has shifted from a previous resistance line to a support line. The upper band at 2985 has become the first resistance. If a volume breakout above 2985 occurs, the next upside target could be in the 3200-3300 range.
**What the indicators are saying**
MACD has formed a bullish divergence near 2620, which is an important signal—price makes a new low, but the indicator does not. The green bars are continuously shrinking, and the DIF line has already turned upward. Simply put: the bearish momentum is nearly exhausted, and the bullish momentum is gradually gathering. On the daily chart, the RSI has exited the oversold zone below 30 and is returning toward the midline at 50. When this combination appears, it usually indicates that the "power-building" phase before a rebound has begun.
**On-chain data and capital movements**
From on-chain data, since late November, some large spot orders below 2800 have been quietly accumulating, indicating that big players are quietly positioning at low levels. On the futures side, short positions still account for a significant proportion, which is interesting—if the price can break above 3000, it could trigger a large-scale short squeeze, accelerating the rebound. By the way, Ethereum’s market dominance has quickly rebounded from the historical low of around 7% to over 7.5%, showing clear signs of capital returning in the short term.
**Possible trading strategies**
For spot trading, it’s safer to enter gradually within the 2800-2850 range. Once it breaks below 2620, stop-loss should be considered.
For leveraged trading, wait for a confirmed breakout above 2985 before going long with a small position, targeting 3200 or 3300. However, if it falls back and loses 2850, it’s time to take profits and exit.
For options traders, consider buying December-expiring call spreads at 3000-3200, taking advantage of the current low implied volatility and directional breakout opportunities to earn gamma gains.
**Overall view**
Ethereum’s "bottoming → sideways consolidation → indicator recovery" three-step process is complete. As long as Bitcoin doesn’t suddenly crash, Ethereum could break out of the 2800-3000 accumulation zone at any time and enter a new rebound cycle. In the short term, it’s suitable to accumulate on dips, but keep a close eye on 2985 and 3000. A confirmed breakout above these levels would be a strong signal.