Every weekend in the crypto market unfolds a different story. This time, the tightening of international tax policies collided with meme coin volatility, sparking a fierce battle between bulls and bears.

On Monday open, the market was flooded with a single message: US authorities officially joined the CARF framework, planning to establish a global crypto asset information sharing mechanism by 2027. Before the words even finished, DOGE formed a classic deep V-shape on the one-hour chart. Panic spread, and many traders hurriedly cut their losses.

Interestingly, while most people remained bearish, the market subtly sent out different signals. The MACD indicator completed a golden cross during its decline and stubbornly stayed above the zero line—this is the most watched rebound warning for technical investors. So, the question is: is this a trap carefully laid out by the big players, or a genuine technical reversal?

**The True Meaning of Policy Impact**

The US’s recent tax scrutiny actions are indeed aggressive. To briefly explain the background: joining the CARF framework means the US will establish crypto asset information exchange mechanisms with over 100 countries worldwide. By 2027, it will be exponentially harder to hide crypto holdings through offshore accounts.

From a long-term perspective, this is definitely a pressure factor facing the market. Stricter tax compliance will dampen the enthusiasm of some investors. But if we look closely at the policy details, US authorities specifically emphasized that "DeFi ecosystems are not currently subject to taxation," which leaves some room for market imagination. The issue is, DOGE as a meme coin is not closely related to the DeFi ecosystem, so this positive news has limited direct benefit for it.

**Market Reactions Are Often Overdone**

Yesterday’s sharp decline was largely driven by retail panic selling. This panic is human nature, but it also provides opportunities for long-term, disciplined funds to accumulate at lower levels. Historically, it often takes several years from policy announcement to actual implementation, and the market needs time to digest and adapt.

The current technical signals—MACD golden cross combined with staying above the zero line—are early signs of a rebound, worth further observation. When policy-induced panic meets technical recovery signals, it often creates opportunities for those willing to buy the dip.