Regarding the threat of quantum computing to the encryption market, the industry has always been divided. But if you're still panicking over the "Doomsday" predictions for 2026, you might be overhyped.

What is the truth? According to research from Coin Bureau and other institutions, about 90% of the current quantum threat theories are marketing gimmicks. Even by 2026, the practical commercial applications of quantum computing remain extremely limited. To truly break through existing cryptographic defenses, the industry generally predicts it will take at least another ten years.

But that doesn't mean there is no risk. On the contrary, the real concerns are more covert.

The biggest vulnerability facing current crypto assets lies in the ECDSA elliptic curve signature algorithm. Data shows that approximately 25% to 30% of Bitcoin—nearly 4 million coins—are stored in addresses where the public key has already been exposed. In comparison, addresses protected by SHA-256 hashing are much safer. Once quantum computing truly gains the ability to crack these, these "naked" assets will be the first to be at risk.

Even more bizarre is the "collect first, decrypt later" theory proposed by security experts like Sahara AI. They believe the real threat may not explode in 2026, but that attackers are already collecting and storing large amounts of encrypted data now. This means your transaction records today could become "locked safes" to be opened at some future point. The time gap is their hunting ground.

The good news is that the crypto community is already taking action. Projects like Qastle have launched anti-quantum upgrade plans, seeking breakthroughs at the technical level. For ordinary users, the most direct defense is to strictly avoid address reuse—currently the last and most effective line of defense.

So rather than viewing 2026 as the end of crypto, it’s better to see it as a turning point. The real battleground is the upcoming post-quantum cryptography era.