Pork Market Bounces Back: Hog Prices Rally on Tuesday Rebound

After Monday’s selloff, the hog market staged a significant recovery on Tuesday, with lean hog futures gaining between 75 cents and $1.00 across the board. The turnaround reflected broader strength in livestock trading, though underlying cash values told a more cautious story.

Price Movement and Market Dynamics

The CME Lean Hog Index climbed 19 cents to $82.99 on December 12, signaling improved sentiment in the near-term hog complex. However, USDA’s national base hog price declined $3.12 to $69.56 in the Tuesday afternoon quote, suggesting some weakness in the physical market despite the futures rally.

The pork carcass cutout value dropped 33 cents to $98.56 per hundredweight, indicating pressure on wholesale pork products. Notably, rib and ham primals were the only primal cuts to post gains, with other cuts showing weakness.

Slaughter Data and Year-Over-Year Comparison

USDA’s inspection data revealed federally inspected hog slaughter at 494,000 head for Tuesday, bringing the weekly total to 973,000 head. This represented 8,000 head below the previous week (after Monday revisions) and 1,175 head below the corresponding week in the prior year—a relatively tight year-over-year comparison that underscores consistent supply levels.

Futures Contract Performance

The rally extended across multiple contract expirations, with Feb 26 Hogs futures closing up $0.925 at $84.775, Apr 26 Hogs up $0.775 to $89.700, and May 26 Hogs advancing $0.875 to $93.375. The consistent gains across the curve suggest strength may be building into spring contract months.

The mixed signals between cash weakness and futures strength warrant close monitoring as traders assess the sustainability of this recovery.