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The recent statement by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda directly rewrites market expectations. He mentioned that wage-price linkage is on the rise, the 2% inflation target is stable, the negative interest rate policy has been completed, and next year they will continue to raise interest rates— in short, the era of easing is over.
This is no small news. The market's reaction is very straightforward: Japanese government bond yields are skyrocketing. It’s important to note that over the past thirty years, the yen has been the cheapest borrowing currency globally. Wall Street institutions have been leveraging yen carry trades to deploy assets worldwide, from emerging markets to tech stocks, from commodities to digital assets, all benefiting from this cheap leverage.
Now? The free money machine is shutting down. Once carry trades are closed, it triggers a chain reaction— all yen-denominated positions must shrink, and selling pressure is coming from all directions. Liquidity, this great river, is clearly receding.
For the crypto market, this means re-pricing. Positions once supported by cheap yen liquidity are now facing stress tests. While the long-term fundamentals of Bitcoin and Ethereum remain unchanged, short-term volatility could significantly increase.
Ultimately, an era has ended—borrowing money is no longer a zero-cost game, and the asset valuation system needs recalibration. How intense this adjustment will be depends on the strength and speed of the unwinding. Keep your positions well-managed; this is no joke.