Core Outlook for the Week Following a 23 Billion Large-Scale Settlement:

The market is highly likely to continue the classic pattern of "sideways consolidation after settlement + trend reversal on Monday," with a focus on the key range of 85k-90k for betting; combined with the Christmas holiday and year-end effects, market liquidity may be weak, potentially intensifying short-term volatility. If this range is effectively broken, a trend of 5%-7% could be triggered.

1. Core Logic: Short-term sideways consolidation dominates
During the Christmas holiday, major Western institutions generally close, and market liquidity enters a phase of depletion, likely replicating the historical pattern from November to December 9-11, characterized by narrow fluctuations from settlement to the following Monday.
Key directional betting: The critical short-term trading range is between 85k (strong support) and 90k (strong resistance). Historical trends suggest that breakouts beyond this range are less likely to be false signals, with strong trend continuation potential.
Clear trend reversal window: December 29 (Monday) is the key turning point after this settlement. Coupled with the year-end capital reallocation needs, historical large settlement events have all initiated trend movements at similar times.
2. Multiple variables influencing bullish and bearish factors:
Bullish drivers: Market makers closing 22,000 BTC to hedge short positions directly release some upward momentum; simultaneously, the positive gamma at 90k is officially解除, significantly easing the main resistance that previously suppressed upward movement.
Bearish pressures: Current market sentiment is cautious (sentiment index at 24). Coupled with continuous ETF fund outflows and the ongoing mid-term downtrend not yet reversing, short-term pullback risks remain.
3. Weekly Market Scenario:
December 26 (Settlement Day): Expected core fluctuation range is 87k-89k, with short-term deviations possible due to capital movements, but trend formation is unlikely under liquidity constraints, with a high probability of quick reversion to consolidation.
December 27-28 (Weekend): The fluctuation range narrows further to 86k-89k. Holiday trading is light, and the market lacks clear directional signals, mainly waiting for capital to return on Monday.
December 29 (Monday): The trend reversal officially begins—if the price stabilizes above 90k, the upward target could reach 93k-95k; if it breaks below the strong support at 85k, the downside could extend to 80k-82k.
December 30-31: The trend may continue or see minor technical corrections. Year-end settlement effects could amplify tail-end volatility, requiring vigilance for extreme market conditions.
4. Trading Guidance:
Post-settlement, prioritize observation and wait for clear direction (confirmation of effective breakout or breakdown of the range) before entering positions. Avoid impulsive chasing or bottom-fishing trades.
Breakthroughs at key levels #加密市场小幅回暖 85k/90k require dual confirmation: "4-hour stabilization + synchronized increase in trading volume" to avoid false signals and improve success rates. During the holiday period, liquidity is limited, and volatility may be amplified. It is recommended to set wide stop-losses in advance, implement risk controls, and reduce potential losses from extreme fluctuations.