Once the Federal Reserve's dot plot is released, the market's rate cut expectations are immediately halved, with the forecast for 2026 revised from previous projections to only 25 basis points. Looking at the distribution of votes among 19 officials, 7 are firmly opposed to rate cuts, and even the most aggressive expect only 150 basis points, making this situation quite interesting.

Honestly, this has a significant impact on follow-trade strategies. An extended rate cut cycle means the dollar's bullish phase will also be prolonged, directly affecting the performance expectations of high-risk assets. Recently, I've been observing the position adjustments of several aggressive traders, and I found that during such expectation reversals, their tolerance for errors in diversified follow-trades has noticeably decreased.

The key is to understand your own risk appetite. If you're following traders who bet on rate cuts, now is the time to reduce your allocation or change your rhythm. But if you're following technical traders or those with strong timing abilities, the revision of rate cut expectations might actually turn into an opportunity—because it can produce daily chart-level shocks.

Experience proves that it's important to see how your follow traders are responding to this wave of expectation shifts. You can gauge their skill by observing their pace of increasing or decreasing positions. Those who blindly stick to old strategies should lower their follow-trade weight early.