Let me start with my judgment on the non-farm payroll data for the 9th of next month: this day is very likely to become a bullish window for the bears.

Currently, the entire market is following a logic—weak employment → Fed is forced to accelerate rate cuts → USD liquidity releases → risk assets surge. It seems that all research institutions are repeatedly emphasizing the core importance of non-farm payrolls to Fed decisions, even implicitly assuming that as long as the unemployment rate rises, rate cuts will automatically be triggered. But here’s a key issue: this story has already been fully digested by the market. In other words, the expectation that "bad employment is good" has already been priced in.

At this stage, as long as the non-farm data doesn’t clearly break expectations—even if it’s just "not that bad," or simply "passable"—the market will treat it as negative and sell off. The logic is straightforward: as long as employment doesn’t collapse, the Fed won’t feel an urgent need to act immediately. Once the data shows any signs of resilience, the probability of a rebound in the dollar index and US Treasury yields increases, and risk assets supported by rate cut expectations will naturally suffer.

This kind of shock tends to be more damaging to the crypto market than to other risk assets. Since 2023, traditional large institutions and macro research teams have begun to dominate the narrative, leading many to misunderstand—believing that as long as the US economy doesn’t enter recession, crypto can stay supported. But this logic itself is flawed. Cryptocurrencies, being highly liquidity-dependent assets, tend to flow into safer options like US stocks and bonds during stable economic periods. The truly crypto-friendly environment is actually during the phase when the economy is weak enough to require monetary easing.

So, what is the real situation of US employment? It’s far from being in an emergency rescue scenario. Initial jobless claims remain low and stable, while continued claims are increasing, but this mostly reflects a lengthening re-employment cycle, not a large-scale layoff wave. There’s no significant hiring surge or mass layoffs—just a delicate balance in a stalemate situation. For the Fed, this can even be considered an "acceptable path" toward a soft landing.

Therefore, investors still in the crypto market should prepare psychologically: the space for short-term pullbacks might be larger than currently imagined. If the non-farm payroll data isn’t "good enough," you should reserve enough imagination for the depth of the downside.