2025-12-26 07:25:57

穆迪的首席经济学家喊出2026年会有多次降息，听着不错。但现实是什么？2025年11月的CPI还死死顶在2.7%，核心CPI也才掉到2.6%，距离2%的目标还隔着一道沟。更扎心的是，通胀根本没消停，基本在3%附近反复震荡，这直接把美联储的手脚给锁死了。

现在的局面有点像被夹在两把刀中间：一边是通胀还没彻底下来的威胁，另一边是经济失速的风险正在浮现。这种两难之下，美联储也只能采取观望态度，一步步来。

别对2026年抱太大期待，想象美联储突然放水。真实情况是，决策层都被1970年代的通胀幽灵吓着了——那次通胀复燃有多惨大家都知道。所以只要CPI还挂在2.7%，没有跌破2%这条线，鲍威尔每一次政策调整都会反复纠结、谨慎得不行。

既然节奏摆在这儿，与其满仓一梭子，不如分批布局更踏实。在利率真正进入加速下行前，那些因为数据不如预期而砸出来的跌幅，很可能就是长期持有者的好机会。

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OnChainSleuth

· 5h ago

2.7% CPI is still lingering there, no wonder Powell can’t confidently cut interest rates. It seems that multiple rate cuts in 2026 are just optimistic expectations within the industry; in practice, we still have to endure.

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DarkPoolWatcher

· 5h ago

Still the same old saying, don't listen to economists bragging, just look at the data. 2.7% CPI is definitely not the bottom; this thing still needs to continue falling.

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MetaverseMortgage

· 5h ago

Another story of the Fed cutting rates to cut leeks again, rate cut in 2026? Haha, just wait and see. Powell definitely isn’t sleeping well at night now, caught between inflation and recession, spinning in circles. Don’t listen to Moody’s, they wouldn’t dare move unless CPI breaks 2%. Staggered entry is the right way, don’t go all in at once. The 2.7% hurdle is not going to be crossed in the short term, be prepared for the long haul. History has taught them a lesson; the nightmare of the 1970s is still fresh in their minds. It still looks like we need to find opportunities amid volatility; those who fall are good entry points. No matter how eloquent it sounds, data is king. Wait until CPI really drops before making moves. Staggered positioning is indeed reliable; don’t bet on the Fed suddenly going crazy and flooding the market.

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FarmToRiches

· 5h ago

Is there another talk about a rate cut in 2026? Wake up, the CPI is still stuck at 2.7, and the Federal Reserve is being pretty timid.

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ContractBugHunter

· 6h ago

It's the same old story again, Powell chickened out, scared by the ghosts of the 1970s and developed a psychological shadow.

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ConsensusBot

· 6h ago

To be honest, multiple interest rate cuts in 2026 are just a pipe dream. CPI stubbornly won't fall below 2%, and Powell will have to be stuck there worrying for a year or two.

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CountdownToBroke

· 6h ago

Is Moody's guy drunk? Multiple rate cuts in 2026? Let's first bring down inflation before bragging.

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