#通货膨胀 The Federal Reserve is about to cut interest rates again, and the crypto world is about to get excited. But looking at these data, something doesn't seem right—weak employment, layoffs hitting a three-year high, consumer credit card debt surpassing $1.2 trillion, with average interest rates over 20%, this is a clear sign that people's pockets are empty.

While rate cuts can boost asset prices in the short term, the key issue is that consumers' purchasing power has not recovered at all. Inflation is still stuck at a high level of 2.5%-2.7%, eroding wage increases. Institutions are optimistic, predicting a 100 basis point rate cut next year, but I think we should be cautious—weak growth combined with tight consumer spending could trigger market shocks, and risk assets might take a beating.

In simple terms, don't be fooled by the rate cut news; you need to see where this money is truly flowing. Asset prices are being propped up, but cracks in the economic fundamentals are widening. This kind of situation is always the easiest to cause surprises.