Christmas Asset Frenzy: S&P 500, Gold, and Silver Reach New Highs, Crypto Market Awaits Turning Point

The S&P 500 index hit a record high on Christmas Eve for the first time since 2013, gold spot prices broke through the psychological level of $4,500 per ounce, and silver prices surged by nearly 150% in 2025, with a market capitalization reaching $4.059 trillion, surpassing Apple’s $4.05 trillion.

Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market is in a relatively quiet period during the Christmas holiday, with Bitcoin prices trading sideways amid low liquidity.

01 Traditional Market’s Christmas Feast

On Christmas Eve 2025, the global traditional financial markets staged a remarkable value revaluation spectacle. U.S. stocks, precious metals, and some commodities moved higher in unison, forming a rare synchronized rally.

The S&P 500 index reached its first Christmas Eve record high since 2013, with broad market gains, 10 out of 11 industry sectors rising. The U.S. Q3 annualized growth rate approached 4.3%, supported by strong economic data boosting investor confidence.

At the same time, low oil prices positively impacted consumer spending, indirectly driving stock market gains.

The precious metals market performed even more impressively. Gold spot prices broke through the $4,500 per ounce psychological threshold, reaching a high of $4,525, setting a new all-time high.

Since 2025, gold prices have risen over 70%, and it is expected to be the best performing year since 1979. Silver prices performed especially well, with gains of nearly 150%, becoming one of the most outstanding asset classes globally.

02 The Logic Behind Global Funds Shifting to Hard Assets

The strong performance of precious metals is not an isolated phenomenon but the result of multiple macro factors working together. Increasing global economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and central bank gold purchases have become the main drivers pushing metal prices higher.

Global geopolitical risks continue to escalate, with tensions in Venezuela’s oil transportation, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and instability in the Middle East prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold that carry no counterparty risk.

In this environment, gold’s appeal as a strategic diversification tool and a source of stability is growing.

Central bank gold purchases provide solid support for precious metal prices. Over the past three years, global central banks have bought over 1,000 tons of gold annually, far exceeding the previous ten-year average of 400-500 tons per year. This sustained official sector demand forms a long-term support for precious metal prices.

The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy shift also favors precious metals. Markets expect the Fed to further cut rates in 2026, potentially lowering the policy rate to around 3%. The low-interest environment reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.

03 Holiday Silence and Potential Variables in the Crypto Market

Contrasting sharply with the booming traditional markets, the cryptocurrency market remains relatively calm during Christmas. Bitcoin performed modestly on Christmas Day, with light trading activity, reflecting reduced institutional participation during the holiday period.

Market liquidity is significantly thin, with traders leaving and institutions on holiday, meaning any sizable buy or sell order could trigger sharp price swings.

Gate Research Institute previously pointed out the existence of a “maximum pain point” phenomenon in options markets, where market prices may be “magnetically” pulled toward a point that maximizes overall losses for all options buyers. This phenomenon could provide short-term reference for price movements.

Beneath this calm surface lie significant variables. On December 26, the crypto market will experience the largest-ever options expiration event. Data shows that about 300,000 Bitcoin options contracts will expire today, with a notional value of approximately $23.7 billion, accounting for over half of the total open interest on Deribit, the largest crypto options exchange.

Including Ethereum options, the total notional value of contracts expiring reaches an astonishing $28.5 billion, doubling last year’s figure, setting a record for the largest single-day crypto options expiration.

04 Opportunities and Risks Amid Market Divergence

The divergence between traditional markets and crypto markets offers investors a unique perspective. This divergence reflects current global capital allocation preferences and risk perceptions.

Gold’s outstanding performance makes it a primary macro hedge against an uncertain world. The combination of strong U.S. economic growth and structural increases in public debt makes gold a concentrated expression of skepticism toward current policy mixes.

Meanwhile, the crypto market faces short-term tests. The $28.5 billion options positions are concentrated in a single day, constituting a strong volatility event.

Historical data shows that options expiration often acts as a catalyst for short-term volatility, but once large hedge positions are unwound after delivery, the true supply and demand forces in the market will become apparent.

05 Market Outlook and Strategic Thinking for 2026

As 2025 draws to a close, global markets stand at a new crossroads. The performance divergence between traditional assets and digital assets hints at potential capital reallocation in 2026.

The precious metals market is expected to remain strong. JPMorgan analysts forecast gold prices will break through the $5,000 per ounce mark in 2026. As central banks increase gold reserves and the supply of gold bars in circulation decreases, coupled with rising demand from retail investors, prices could further climb.

The cryptocurrency market may find direction after the options expiration event. Once the technical disruptions caused by options settlement subside, the market will refocus on macroeconomic expectations, regulatory developments, technological innovation, and capital inflows.

The rapid growth of the options market itself is the most direct evidence of deep institutional participation. Traditional asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity are deploying complex options strategies, and CME Group’s continuous launch of new Bitcoin derivatives signals that the crypto market has entered a new development stage.

For investors, maintaining a cautious yet optimistic attitude is crucial in the current environment. Markets are volatile, and static analysis is for reference only; investors should adjust strategies based on real-time market dynamics.

In asset allocation, consider using gold as a hedge tool while paying attention to potential opportunities in the crypto market after the options expiration event.

Future Outlook

Silver’s market value quietly surpassed Apple during Christmas, reaching $4.059 trillion, making it the third most valuable asset globally, behind gold and NVIDIA.

Gold spot prices on December 24 traded within a wide range of about $55, highlighting the high sensitivity of prices to marginal capital flows during holiday liquidity thinness.

Meanwhile, the crypto market is holding its breath, awaiting the outcome of today’s options expiration, with a notional value of $28.5 billion seeking to close positions, which could be a key catalyst for short-term market direction.