#通货膨胀 Seeing Powell's recent remarks, I am reminded of the memories from 2021. Back then, everyone was debating whether inflation was "transitory" or "structural," with central banks repeatedly delaying rate hikes, and markets betting they would continue to stay accommodative. As a result, the rate hike cycle in 2022 came unexpectedly fast, and many were caught off guard in that wave of market volatility.

The current situation is somewhat similar but not exactly the same. Powell said that inflation risks are tilted to the upside, and the policy path is risk-free—this sounds like they are saying: we are caught in the middle. On one side, tariffs and geopolitical tensions could push prices higher; on the other, the labor market is still cooling but hasn't fully cooled down yet. The internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve itself highlight the issue: Goolsbee wants to wait for more data, Schmid believes inflation is still too high, and Posen is considering whether AI productivity gains or inflation risks carry more weight.

This reminds me of the period in 2015-2016 when global central banks were fighting their own battles based on different economic logic, ultimately leading to significant market volatility. History doesn't repeat exactly, but it often rhymes. If tariffs do indeed push prices higher as expected, and the Fed delays action due to the moderate labor market, we might be brewing the next price discovery cycle. The key assets in this cycle are still to be observed.