Trump recently provided an interesting economic outlook: by 2026, the US will enter a new growth phase, with significant improvements in employment and income. Once this news broke, the market immediately sensed the scent of liquidity expansion—fiscal stimulus combined with accelerating economic growth, likely driving funds into stocks, cryptocurrencies, and other risk assets.

It seems everything is paving the way for a bull market, but the situation is not that simple.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve signaled the opposite. The probability of a rate cut in January has fallen to just 12%. Traders understand what this means: dovish expectations have been shattered, and the Fed’s tightening tools may be more resolute than previously thought. Liquidity leaders suddenly tighten, breaking previous expectations of a loose cycle.

The current situation is somewhat delicate. On one side is the economic stimulus plan from the president, vowing to push up asset prices; on the other side is the Fed wielding hawkish measures, refusing to loosen rate cuts. These opposing forces are pulling fiercely, and every statement from officials or data report can trigger intense market volatility.

The divergence in expectations between bulls and bears has been completely torn apart. In this environment, liquidity expectations are prone to short-term fluctuations. Will Trump’s bullish narrative dominate the overall trend, or will the tightening reality of the Fed prevail? The answer may lie in the upcoming policy battles.

Major opportunities often emerge during such policy splits. Increased volatility means higher risks, but also continuous opportunities for selection. What do you think will be the outcome of this showdown? Will it evolve into a bull market or a volatile sideways trend?