A record $23.6 billion in Bitcoin options will expire this Friday. This figure far exceeds historical normal levels, indicating a large volume of positions requiring settlement, which could trigger significant market volatility.

Market positioning shows distinct characteristics. Call options dominate overwhelmingly, with the put-to-call ratio as low as 0.38, suggesting traders are generally betting on an upward move. A large amount of capital is concentrated in the $100,000 to $120,000 high range, and this concentration also implies risk—if the price fails to reach the expected increase, these call options will expire worthless, leading to a decline in buying momentum.

It is worth noting that the options expiration coincides with the Christmas holiday, during which market liquidity is relatively thin. In such an environment, large trades are more likely to cause sharp price swings. Traders need to consider liquidity risk and rising hedging costs.

How the market will develop next largely depends on whether the price movement within this cycle can break through the target levels of the main bullish positions.