Year-end is here, and many people are debating a question: should I withdraw my USDT for the New Year, or put it into exchange financial products to earn interest? I heard some financial products can offer an annualized return of 20%, which is indeed tempting.

This matter needs to be looked at separately. First, it’s important to understand whether the RMB has been appreciating throughout this year, and if so, whether it’s appropriate to convert to RMB (settle foreign exchange) now. Second, if we use RMB for calculations, how much return from exchange financial products is needed to offset the loss from the relative depreciation of the dollar.

Some mention the Japanese yen appreciation and the subsequent "Lost 30 Years," but it’s not that simple. Don’t be misled by interpretations from certain social media outlets.

In theory, yen appreciation is good—it strengthens purchasing power and is suitable for consumption-driven economies. But Japan at that time, like us, relied on foreign trade. After the yen appreciated rapidly, assets denominated in yen soared, hot money flooded into the stock market, then flowed overseas. As a result, Japan’s attempt to shift from an export-driven to a consumption-driven economy failed, and the economy stagnated.

Our current situation is a bit different. The RMB has appreciated, and purchasing power has strengthened as well, but our trade surplus remains. This means that domestically produced goods can absorb excess purchasing power, allowing a smoother transition to a consumption-based economy.

Specifically, the RMB has appreciated about 4% this year. It might be roughly the same next year until the domestic circulation truly kicks in.

What does this mean? If you keep your funds in exchange financial products or other investment products, and their annualized return is less than 4%, it basically can’t offset the loss from dollar depreciation. The market is indeed sluggish now, and some platforms offer financial products with yields reaching this level. Although there are limits (for example, a maximum of 50,000), the transaction costs between USDT and financial products are actually not that significant. If the quota is sufficient, these types of financial products are worth considering.